Digital Mortgage 2021 Roundtable 1: A Private Conversation with Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D., Acclaimed Economic Expert & Former Senior Economist at the National Association of Home Builders

Heidi Patalano, Editor In Chief, National Mortgage News; Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D., Acclaimed Economic Expert and Former Senior Economist at the National Association of Home Builders, GraphsandLaughs, LLC

Transcription:

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (00:00)
...see the lights and see the parties and see the store windows and whatever. Yeah. Good food has some particularly good food.

Heidi Patalano: (00:07)
Yeah, absolutely. Well, I see some participants coming into the room, so I wanna welcome you all here. Thanks for joining us for this conversation. Um, please do, I mean, we're here so that you can ask questions directly to Dr. Eisenberg. So please either you can come on screen and, and ask your question live, or you can pop it into the chat. So, um, I can just, you can feel free to, you know, put your, to, to jump in at any time. Um, and we'd love to hear what your questions are. Um, absolutely. Yeah. I am happy to kick it off while we, you know, while people get their, um, you know, think about their questions and what they wanna ask you. Um, I think you had a lot of really, really, uh, positive kinds of comments about, you know, recovery economical, but of course, you know, being, I, I, I wanna hear about the, the, the, the things that are of concern for lenders. Like what would you say that's changing in the next year or two that lenders would really need to keep their eye on going forward?

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (01:19)
I mean, there's conceivably this, this default numbers that I tell talked to you about earlier that I showed that graph where, where the foreclosures and, uh, you know, there's, there's a little bit of forbearance out there. There are still a million homes in forbearance. I just don't see them coming to, to fruition. I really don't. We've moved 3 million homes off of forbearance from out of 4 million. There's a million left the numbers dropping rapidly, not a problem bankruptcies to sure. Some households are gonna get caught in the vice of bankruptcy. There's no question, but is it enough to alter massive amounts of lending and cause enough homes to go into the default that, that, that conceivably hurdle lender or, or, or cause borrow investors to go away? I don't see that either. I see this as a strong labor market and as a result, as a strong household market and as a result, not much to worry about lending automobiles.

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (02:10)
Okay. We can talk about auto problems, maybe that they're overpriced, but that's a whole separate conversation. And even there, they're not much there's a problem potentially, but in homes, do I see some markets conceivably declining in price? Yeah, it's possible. Sure. Look at a place like Austin or, or, or, uh, I think it's, uh, uh, Austin or a, a, um, an Idaho I'm, I'm having a short circuit right now, a huge, huge price appreciation there, not Missoula in Montana, but a couple of these markets like that that are very strong, you know, could some of these extremely high priced place where we've seen 30, 35%, almost 40% home price appreciation. See a bit of a bit of a reversal. Yeah. I'm not sure that's the case, but that's the place I'd be most I'd most expect to see it. So beyond guard in these places where we've had massive appreciation rates, not the tens and twenties, but the thirties and forties.

Heidi Patalano: (03:06)
Yeah.

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (03:07)
You know that those are the places I'm a little bit of Boise, Idaho, for example, that you know, that there might be a little concern.

Heidi Patalano: (03:13)
Right, right. Oh, absolutely. I've read a lot about Boise and the crazy kind of environment that they've had in this.

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (03:20)
So if you buy, if you're a buyer or buying a weak house, you know, buying a, a sort of a fixer upper at the edge of the neighborhood and you're paying a hundred thousand over list price in a booming hot market. Right. That's a house that I, yeah. I could be nervous about.

Heidi Patalano: (03:34)
Right. Absolutely. Right. Okay. So anyone who wants to good question, please? Uh, you can come on screen, turn on your mic and then, or if you prefer, you can ask a question by entering it into the question box. So I'm just gonna leave some space if anyone wants to pop up.

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (03:56)
Wow. I'm not sure if people are afraid that I'll bite them off, they'll bite their heads off or you will more appropriately, or I did such a good job. I answered all the questions. I'm not really sure.

Heidi Patalano: (04:10)
Actually I do have a question here. Okay. Um, can you explain a bit more about the 100 K regulatory burden from builders? What goes into that cost? Sure.

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (04:19)
Let, this is primarily land use and you you're telling builders, you have to build on a half acre lot. You have to have a, a three, a 30 foot setback in the front. You have to have a 20 foot setback on the sides. It's essentially NIMBYs trying to force politicians to prevent new homes from being built. And the easiest way to think about this intellectually is well you're from New York, Heidi. Right? Think of what it costs to build an extra floor on a building. So you're on the 30th floor on the 30 floor building, let's add a 31st floor. How much will it cost out a floor? I don't know. Let's make up a number, a million dollars. And let's say that there are four units on the four on that 31st floor. That means the cost is a, is a quarter million dollars unit.

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (05:01)
Right? Sure. Great. That's what they should sell for roughly. I mean, there's profit and all that kind of stuff, but you get the idea, the cost of building, it should have some close relationship to the ultimate sale price, but in New York city, you're gonna see sales much higher than that because it's not, that's not relevant. What's relevant is getting it through city council and getting it through local zoning authority and getting permits and getting this and paying off a politician with a bag of cash. Okay. That never happens. Um, you get the idea. And that's what I may own in my house where I lived in Chevy, chase, Maryland, a two acre lot, but it's zoned for one house. And that makes the land essentially worthless. If I could subdivide it, that would increase the supply of housing, uh, potential housing, but that's against the law.

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (05:46)
So by making barriers to building a house, land prices become astronomical. They don't zone enough. There's not enough buy right land. So you have to go through all these connections fits and go over all these hurdles and delay, look in New Jersey to get, to get a home build. It can take a, a builder developer, six, seven years to go through the process. So only the biggest developers can do it. Only the biggest home builders have the money and time to do this. They make a lot of money, but they're not building enough homes. They prefer to build homes and small builders forget about it. So the deck is stacked against enough home construction coming in. It's it's true. It's also the code. Sure. Egress and windows and arc fault interrupters and stuff, but that's relatively small fry compared to the, the land use issues that are out there.

Heidi Patalano: (06:40)
Oh, I think, I think someone might be unmuted that might want to be muted. Um, anyway. All right. Well, thanks for that. Okay. I've got another great question here. Hold on one moment. Okay. Um, so, uh, fan of your blog, John Hudson says that and he mentioned he he's a fan of yours. Um, 2018 was a very tough year for mortgage banks. According to the NBA, the average production profit was only 14 BPS. Uh, do you see mortgage bankers facing the same headwinds in 2022 with mortgage and compression and competition? And if so, do you have any hot on how best to prepare

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (07:19)
To some extent, remember in 2018, the fed raised rates four times inappropriately in retrospect inappropriately. So what did they do in 19 is they lowered the rates four times and made up and said, mayor Copa, mayor Copa, ma maxi MCPA. Um, so the home sales activity was really pretty meager in 2018. It had been stronger at weakened than an got better in 19, again, a little bit, right? And the end of 19 was really, really strong this year. We're going to have a really good home sales in 22. There's no question on the sales. It's the problem that we face is an industry that had ramped up for massive sales and massive refi. And now we know that the sales will be as good in 22 as they were in 20 and maybe a little less, but it'll be a great year, but not better.

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (08:02)
And we know refis going backwards. So I would say, get rid of your refi shop for one that's totally for sure. And there may well be some margin compression, but it's, this is the booms and busts of the industry and you we've lived through them in the past. I mean, I'm not a mortgage banker per se. I don't know how to run a, how to run an in how to run a shop, but refi is gonna be much, much weaker. We'll have a third or a quarter of the action refi activity. So that's the easy, easy place to go revamp your, your, your comp, your comp plan. I, these are not brilliant dancers here. I apologize for not being aware of the, the intricacies of the loan market, but sales activity will be strong. There's no doubt.

Heidi Patalano: (08:42)
Great. Okay. So we have another question here. Um, you touched on the worker shortage a little bit in your last session. Can you talk more about what you see driving it in construction in other areas?

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (08:54)
So the, I think there are a couple problems. One, immigration's a problem. When, when, when, when in, in, in migrants come from Mexico or south of Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Salvador, more those countries, not so much Honduras. These people don't speak English, a great career for them is construction. And we've made it very hard to get in. Again, I don't wanna talk about the, the, the political merits here of immigrant. That's not this conversation, but in terms of a home builder, I'd like to find some workers and a lot. So that's problem. Number one, problem. Number two, we're discouraging people from the trades, and this is a, this is a bad thing. Oh, go to college, go to college. You're a loser. If you don't go to college, this is nonsense college isn't for everybody. And construction is a great paying job with minimal skills at the initial level.

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (09:38)
And you can grow in and make your own business and all kinds of stuff. So we're being told not to use our hands. And number of workers in construction are old and they're retiring and they're they're aging out. So we've got a problem glazers and all these types of carpenters and stuff. There aren't enough of them. We need to encourage kids. And that's interest thing is if you look at high school graduation rates or college graduation rates, I'm sorry, it's increasingly women within six or seven years, two thirds of all college grads will be women. Now we can argue why this is. Let's not even go there for now, but these men, boys that aren't going to college, we'll bring them into the trades for God. Say, let, 'em learn a skill. They don't wanna go to college. Don't go to college, get a, but you need a skill to make a living in the economy today and being a Glazer or carpenter or journeyman plumber or whatever it is. Terrific. So we're discouraging it. Boys are getting lost in the shuffle. Somehow this is very bizarre. The, the, the 21st century has not been kind. This process began in or in the mid eighties, Brisbane going on for 40 years in a row. And if we can't solve the problem, at least deal with it by giving them a career.

Heidi Patalano: (10:43)
Right? Absolutely. Um, I wanna invite again, anyone who wants to ask a live question, anyone who might have taken themselves off the mic that wants to, or off mute, who might wanna just wanna leave space for that?

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (10:58)
I mean, supplies, chain problems are gonna persist too. We didn't have enough time to talk about that during our conversation, but these supply chain problems, we're relying on foreign countries for a lot of our stuff. And now this is at some extent, this may may reverse a little bit. I mean, the us is never gonna be a powerhouse producer in low margin items, but in the higher margin items, we could well be a competi. So we could say, look, let's not rely on one country for anything anymore. Mm-hmm, Playhouse, let's rely on two or three on two different continents or whatever it is. This will probably raise the cost of production. So there'll be a one time rise in cost of most goods because our supply chains that were so well designed for just in time product. Aren't so good for just in case production. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (11:44) We can't get refrigerators, let's buy more and then it's all clogged. So we better have some production, Indiana. And in, in Hong Kong or China or Vietnam or whatever, Mexico or wherever it is. So the, the economics of the inputs of the home are going to change a little bit and costs will probably rise as a result of this one time rise. It may take a few years for it to go into fully effect, but if you compare prices of manufacturing costs now versus three years from now, I bet they'll be higher in most, most cases by a little bit as firms rearrange their supply chain Heidi Patalano: (12:18) Mm-hmm right. Well, you know, that kind of makes me think of, uh, the bit you ended off on with, um, mobile homes and the double wide homes. And I, I'm really fascinated to hear more about how that's going to act the single family home market. And just like how you see that expanding over the next couple years. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (12:40) Yeah. I, I, and we talked a little bit about that. This may become the new, the new affordable homes that are, that are put out there. But I think this is a, it's a it's, this is a sign of incredible demand out there and, and inability to solve it any other way. So these buyers who are buying these double wides, they may have said, oh, we can afford to buy a stick, a stick built house in a, in a neighborhood, but they can't afford it. So they wanna buy a mobile home or a Mo you know, a HUD home, but they can't because the price has gone up and the price not because demand is up and supply chains have been back for them as well. They have the same problem with waves and dishwashers and windows that everybody else has too. So this there's, this there's this massive shortage of housing. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (13:22) And even the cheapest housing is no longer cheap. This is really a it's it's, it's not a good thing 10 years from now. We will be sorry about this, because how do people accumulate wealth? Okay. Rich people can do it a whole bunch of ways. You know, Sam, Zell's got lots of opportunities as we talked about earlier, but you and me, most middle class people, their home is their largest source of wealth. They wanna put their kids through college. They borrow against their home. They wanna buy a car. They put their kid through home. They buy, borrow against the house. They wanna open a business. They borrow against their house. They have a medical bill, unexpected medical bill. They borrow against their house. If they don't have the house, they've lost its chance to gain home equity. And this will slow. And TYY people in 10 or 15 years, we need to really try and solve this problem at, at, at, at the level of Washington, DC. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (14:08) I mean, you and I are gonna solve this conversation in a conversation, but these problems are severe. We need to make it easier to build houses, all types of houses, expensive, cheap, everything, prevent NIMBYs from getting in there and mucking up the works. If you will, if people are moving in bursts or more people, you need more homes. And if you don't build them very bad consequences, oh, let's have a moratorium on home building. Are you kidding me? That just drives prices up more. Let's have rent control. And or if you're gonna have rent control, at least have it along with a bunch of other programs. But the key thing is supply. We need more supply, not demand. We shouldn't be encouraging demand there, and don't give people cash for time, home buyers, not really a good idea. There's lots of demand. They're ready. It's we have to figure out to increase supply. Heidi Patalano: (14:58) Right. Right. Absolutely. Heidi Patalano: (15:03) Okay. I have any question here. Um, will there be an income shock coming up for those, like in our industry that saw their incomes go up dramatically during the past two years? And if so, what will be the impact of that economically? Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (15:17) So I'm not sure which industry we're looking at in particular here is it, is it mortgage finance is what I'm guessing it is, right. As opposed to home building per se. Um, yeah, sure. There's no question. The number of people in the industry will necessarily decline the lightly because the refi activity's gonna go away and margin compression will mean fewer people can make a living on, on, on, on mortgage production. So yes, but economically, and this happens to all kinds of sectors over all kinds of, you know, hotels are up, hotels are down sports and leisure are up or down. Manufacturing has booms and busts. I wouldn't worry about the, at the macroeconomic level. It's not like there are, you know, 20 million mortgage lenders out there and, or the mortgage business employees, 20 million people. It's a, it's one of the many sectors that are important and matter, but almost no sector matters enough to wreck the economy. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (16:07) And even leisure and hospitality that had was decimated right. In, in, in the, in the COVID collapse. Even they have marginal impact on the overall job numbers for the us entirely. They have some, but they're a huge, huge sector by comparison, right? This is not to make the mortgage lending industry. Uh, I'm not ranking them in importa importance. That's not the point automaker have a bad year or two when they production decline. Yeah. Employment numbers barely, barely, barely shows. I mean, you have, I'll give you one example Katrina in 2008 in Louisiana, if you didn't know Katrina happened, you would never have seen it in the data in the us. So an entire state gets wrecked. City gets destroyed. A state gets wrecked. It isn't even visible. The country's too big. Heidi Patalano: (16:57) Mm-hmm Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (16:58) To see it. Heidi Patalano: (16:59) Yeah. Wow. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (17:00) So it's both good news and bad news, I guess. Heidi Patalano: (17:03) Right. You know, Elliot, I, I don't think I mentioned as I should have that you are a former economist at the national association of home builders. Um, but you're not associated with them now. And one of the things I really appreciate about speaking to you is that you don't have a dog in this fight. You just can offer us your unvarnished opinions on everything. You're not coming at it from any particular angle. Right. Um, so one of the things I really wanted to ask you about, uh, were, was about the performance of a lot of these, uh, large mortgage companies that have gone public over this boom period that we had over the last year and a half. Um, what do you see happening now and down the road for them? Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (17:45) Wow. I mean, I give them credit, uh, Matt ISPA, you know, bringing, bringing public U w I or whatever the acronym is there, or rocket mortgage or whatever. And there were a couple, Hey, they, their timing was bang on. They hired Goldman Sachs or whoever it was, or, you know, to, to advise them Morgan Stanley. And they got great advice go. And when, when you know, your, your brand is hot, go go public. And since then their stock price has declined because the, the it's weakened cuz of refi and so on margin compression likely to come and so on. So look, uh, uh, be skeptical out there is, is the key and, and know what you're buying. I mean, when, when a company goes public, their interest is the existing shareholders, not the new ones. This isn't specific to mortgage lending it's to Tesla and Amazon and Microsoft and everybody else. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (18:32) But you know, you're the late comer to the party. If you will make sure you're getting a fair shake and know what, know what you're buying be, be, be skeptical. I think it is don't don't believe the hype don't believe your own press releases is the best advice I can offer you. But that said, look, these are solid companies, right? And we, but the banks, the big banks, they're kind of leaving this industry slowly. I steadily for a whole bunch of regulatory reasons and so on. So, you know, bank of America and Wells Fargo, their, their, their share of the mortgage, uh, origination market keeps declining. So these other firms are necessarily gonna pick up market share from them and next boom, their markets, their stock market prices will go up. So it may be a matter of buying hold for a while or whatever, but, but if you wanna go in and out of the market and make a quick buck, be very, very careful, but that is true for everything mm-hmm . So I think there's a lot of general lessons to be learned here, much more general lessons than specific mortgage market lessons. But the timing on the, on the, on the IPOs was magnificent Heidi Patalano: (19:34) right, right. I mean, you know, from the editorial side, we were, it felt like every other week we were writing about one of these IPOs. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (19:41) Right. Um, Heidi Patalano: (19:43) And would you have any comment just generally about the, the spec craze and how that might be impact acting things going forward or Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (19:53) Just, it makes me very nervous. This is not a normal way to go out and raise money and corners get nipped and things aren't done quite as well. There's a lot of leading data that, that are, that, that are given to, to potential investors that aren't allowed under normal conditions, SCC rules. So we, they're not playing fast and loose with the rules, the rules, the rules, this is an AR this is a sort of a regulatory arbitrage way to get out, get out there faster and quicker. That makes me a little bit nervous and they haven't done all that. Well, I think the spa craze is probably, uh, it came in already. We've already seen it, the, the peak of it, but it makes me a little nervous when markets get a, a little unglued and get too excited. This is generally not a good thing. So I would say count to 10, take a step back, count to 10, pop up. Papa's Xanax, calm down and, and then rethink. And do you still wanna buy that IPO the next morning? If you thought about it for 24 hours, you still do. Okay. Go ahead and do it, but don't do it on the spur of the moment. Heidi Patalano: (20:56) Mm-hmm okay. Well, once again, everybody, please interrupt. If you have a question or pop it into the chat, if you do, um, I want, but since you mentioned that in terms of what people are excited about, I, I have to ask about crypto. Um, just, I'm just curious to know if you've ever, if you bought any crypto, if you're investing in any crypto yourself, Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (21:17) Or I own, I own one or two, two light coins that I want. I, I coin is my wallets in my phone, right? The coin's not really there. Um, I've won two light coins and I follow them very closely, even though they're worth collectively $300. They excite my mind irrationally. So, um, I'm not a big fan. I, it's not that I'm not, I, I believe in, I believe in, in blockchain technology, I believe in Ethereum, more than anything else, cuz it's a platform that can be used to do all kinds of other things in other areas is in terms of Bitcoin or do coin. I'm not sure what problem they're solving ether. Uh, Ethereum solving a problem and the stable coins are also solving a problem. I think they need more regulation and to make sure they really are stable coins than what they're, what they're doing is what they're saying. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (22:02) They're doing what they're saying, what they're doing, but Bitcoin itself, I'm not sure what we're getting there. I think as more people get into them, they become less volatile and as they become less volatile, we're gonna lose interest in them. We're only interested in them because they're volatile and we can make a quick buck. There's nothing wrong with this, but don't bet the mortgage on this. I think don't bet your kids' college tuition. You wanna take five or 10,000 or 20,000 bucks and go crazy. Sure. Have a good time. But you know, don't wreck yourself financially. Don't take your, your Roth IRA or your 401k money and put it in Bitcoin caution. There can be great wins, but you can also lose your money also. Heidi Patalano: (22:41) Right. Right. That seems like some sound advice there. Um, you know, just Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (22:46) Excited had I bought a few coins. I could have retired in you you'd be a zillionaire. So had I missed the boat? Yeah, I did. I feel bad, but whatever Heidi Patalano: (22:53) I know. I mean, it's, it's really, it's reached a fever pitch in terms of the coverage of it, uh, the market. And then just, Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (23:02) There was a funny data point I saw yesterday or two years ago, I said, what do you want for Christmas? And the most popular gift item was, was, was, was, was cryptocurrency. So Santa Claus may be carrying his bags, maybe a lot lighter this year than in prior than in the Years's past. Cuz he'll be, he'll be passing out 1000th of a Bitcoin or something Heidi Patalano: (23:21) And non fungible tokens and Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (23:22) Everything. Oh yeah. That too. Nike just bought a firm that makes non fungible tokens of, of, of sneakers. Again, I, I I'm at a law us here. There may be some value. I'm I? Maybe the wrong person. Oh look to flip it around. I can say gold is a, is, is a bubble, right? Gold prices. What's gold. It's a weird thing. No one really needs it jewelry, but no other purpose. It's really high. But look, people accept it as a form of payment, they accept it as valuable. It behaves in a standardized kind of way. Inflation fears go up gold prices, go up, inflation fears, go down. So look, if people believe in it and it behaves in a reasonably systematic way, you could say Gold's been a bubble for 5,000 years already. So the Bitcoin ends that being a bubble for 5,000 years also, and I'm totally wrong. Right? So it could be more and more gold, like over time as it settles into a normal pace and PAC and behavior. So I'm, you know, gold has weird functions. It solves, it solves a problem. It allows investors to invest when they're fearful of something in particular inflation or whatever it is. I Bitcoin may be also a solution to that same problem. Heidi Patalano: (24:28) Hmm. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (24:29) Playing devil's advocate here. Right. So I'm, I'm not down on it. I just, I don't fully understand it enough to know when and how to invest in it and thoughtfully. Heidi Patalano: (24:39) Right, right. Um, yeah. And, and just another forward looking thing, I mean, I, I'm seeing headlines of about, you know, buying property in the virtual space and that's a whole other, crazy, crazy, uh, new venue for, for purchases and investments that, yeah. , can't wrap my mind. I, Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (24:59) I'm a little skeptical of buying, paying a hundred thousand bucks for a, a lot next to a good hotel, you know, or whatever it is in the a cloud. I, I, I I'm, maybe I'm just too old when you're much younger than I am. You should invest and think about this, but I'm, that's, that's a step too far again, it's like the, the NFTs. What are you getting in a non fungible token? What is it? Is it like a first addition of a book? Is that the equivalent the way to think about that makes it valuable. The first Harry Potter book that's really valuable. I dunno the answer to that. I just don't know. Heidi Patalano: (25:32) Mm mm-hmm yeah, yeah. it's, it's a really, Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (25:36) I can't live in my NFT that much. I know. I still have to buy a house. Heidi Patalano: (25:39) Right, right, right. There you go. Um, let's see. I think we have time for just one more question before we have to go. Um, oh, okay. Got a great one here. Um, how will state regulations impact future housing? For example, a state like California losing population of states like Texas and Florida. So Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (26:00) Yeah. And the, this in California, you look, think back to the seventies when California was really in a vivacious place to live and all these rock stars, Youngs, there were 20, 25, you know, Tom petty and all these guys were there making music and jamming. How could they live there? Cause housing was cheap. Housing gets expensive. The world becomes a very different place. Rich people move in poor people, young people move away. So the dynamics of the place changes dramatically in population grow stops. New York city doesn't gain population much. It's too expensive. Only rich people can live in New York city now. Right? Mm-hmm so you, you, you, your whole demographics change completely what services people have to drive 50 miles to sleep at night, cuz there's nowhere to live or they have to have 27 people living in a two family house or something crazy like that. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (26:41) So you wanna have a vibrant market. You wanna have more homes built. It's really, this is really not a good thing. It's great for existing homeowners. That prices rise, but it's terrible for home buyers. And in the future, our children and grandchildren are all gonna be home buyers. And I, I don't wanna have to give my daughter a wheel barrel of cash to buy a house. Yes. The house I want in Boston downtown in Cambridge is a million dollars. I need a quarter million from you. I love you very much, daddy. that's really not something I'm looking forward to. I may have to do it, but I'm not really excited about it. Build more homes. Government legislation should be driven by the idea of increasing supply, not decreasing it. And almost everybody decreases it. Okay. California now has changed and said, Hey, you can do, you can build up to two, two homes or four homes on tin, double on, on most lots. And Minneapolis has done it too, but need more, more, more regulation gets in the way almost always and prevents it's the book of no, essentially for a home builder and developer. Heidi Patalano: (27:40) Right? Right. Um, actually, yep. I think we can, can squeeze in one more. Um, what suggestions do you have for a young person to take advantage of the economy over the next few years? Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (27:50) Wow. Right now is a great time to change jobs. If you are not happy in your job, now go to your boss and say, you want a 10% pay raise. You wanna work from home. You want a car and you want a, a, a spending allowance. I'm kidding. But if you have any belief that you're not getting what you're worth your job, isn't quite right. Now's the time to go to your boss and negotiate, better, pay, better package, better situation, more work from home, whatever it is you want, get it now because your employer doesn't wanna lose you cuz hiring somebody else to replace you is maddening, miserable, very expensive and time consuming. Don't let this pass you by. This may be the best chance you have in your life. Or if you wanna change careers into a career where you're not quite qualified, this is a chance. Cause you say, look, I'm really good at doing X and Y I think I can also do Z. Give me a chance there more likely to say yes. Cause they find the person they really want in the first place. Mm-hmm careers a little bit and asking for more or, or just going out in the same industry and putting your shingle out and getting a, getting a job offer. Call ahead hunter. Heidi Patalano: (28:57) Yeah. Yeah. Wow. That's really great. I that's a, that's some good advice. I'm gonna definitely pass along to my younger compatriots. Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (29:06) It was a pleasure working with you, Heidi. My gosh, I thoroughly enjoyed this. Heidi Patalano: (29:10) Yes. This was so much fun. Elliot. I really enjoyed our conversation today. Um, thank you so much for being a part of digital mortgage this year. Um, and yeah. Uh, thanks everyone for joining us for this conversation. Absolutely. And uh, yeah, I guess that's it. How have a great day Dr. Elliot Eisenberg: (29:27) Be? Well guys, I'll look forward to seeing you in the future somewhere. Thanks. Thanks again, Heidi. Heidi Patalano: (29:31) Thank you.