Zombie property apocalypse fails to materialize

The feared spike in foreclosures and zombie properties after the pandemic-era moratorium and payment forbearance ended has not materialized, a report from Attom Data Solutions has concluded.

"Indeed, the opposite has happened, as abandoned homes in foreclosure continue to get harder and harder to find around the country," Attom CEO Rob Barber said in a press release.

The second quarter vacant property rate of 1.26% — one in 79 homes — is unchanged from three months prior; this equates to just under 1.3 million properties. For the second quarter of 2023, the rate was a single basis point higher, at 1.27%

Meanwhile, Attom found that 237,208 residential properties are in the foreclosure process in the current period, down 2.3% from the first quarter and down 23.9% versus one year earlier.

The count of pre-foreclosure properties abandoned by their owners (also defined as zombie foreclosures by Attom) is 6,945, down 5.4% from the prior quarter and 20.6% from a year ago.

A likely reason is the massive gains in homeowner equity, making it easier for troubled borrowers to extricate themselves from their difficult situations. But that is starting to change, Barber said.

"Some signs have popped up over the past year that the long U.S. housing market boom is giving back some of its gains, which could lead to declining equity and more foreclosures," he said. "We are still far from losing the benefit of having zombie properties nearly disappear from the housing market landscape."

The CoreLogic Home Price Index for March had an annual increase of 5.3%, down from 5.5% in February and 5.8% in January, although up from 3.1% in March 2022.

Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Finance Agency's own HPI report for March found a 0.1% month-to-month change in prices from February. This compared with a 1.2% change between January and February and a 0.1 price decline between December and January.

Attom's own home sales analysis found the nationwide median home value dropped quarter-to-quarter by 4% to $330,000, but it was still up 3% from a year earlier.

A total of 6,945 residential properties facing a possible foreclosure action were vacated by their owners during the second quarter. This is compared with 7,338 in the first quarter and 8,752 one year prior, Attom said.

Delinquency rate data is mixed. The Mortgage Bankers Association found conventional loan delinquencies increased one basis point to 2.62% on a quarter-to-quarter basis, while Veterans Affairs-guaranteed program late payments rose 59 basis points to 4.66%. Federal Housing Administration-insured mortgages had a 42 basis point decline to 10.39%.

Mortgages late 30 to 59 days in April made up .83%, according to VantageScore. This was down from 90 basis points in March but up from 70 basis points for April 2023.

Similar trends were seen in the 60-to-89 and 90-to-119 days' buckets. In that 60-to-89-day time frame, the April delinquency rate was 24 basis points, compared with 31 basis points the previous month and 16 basis points the prior year.

When it came to borrowers 90 to 119 days late, April's 14 basis point rate was 1 basis point lower from March but 7 basis points more than April 2023, the VantageScore report said.