Ukraine conflict pushes mortgage rates down

Ethan Swope/Bloomberg

Following a 23-basis-point jump last week, mortgage rates edged back downward as tensions in Ukraine tempered upward pressure coming from robust economic data.

The average of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 3.89% for the weekly period ending Feb. 24, three basis points from 3.92%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A year ago, the 30-year rate stood at 2.97%.

“There were no signs of changes in labor markets, as employment figures remain strong. Retail sales were stronger than expected and import prices pointed to continued inflationary pressures.” said Paul Thomas, vice president of capital markets at Zillow, in a research blog post.

“But the strong economic data from last week was offset by continued uncertainty in Ukraine, keeping rates from continuing to increase,” he added.

As news of a Russian invasion of Ukraine emerged on Thursday, Yields for 10-year Treasuries plummeted to $1.89 at the opening of trading in New York after closing at $1.98 the previous day, but had risen back over $1.90 by 10am. Mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year note, and any prolonged effect will likely show up in the coming days.

“Markets will be focused on the situation in Ukraine this week and potential economic impacts, along with inflation data coming out Friday,” Thomas noted.

But even with this week’s decline, the first since late January, mortgage rates are still up by more than a full percentage point over the past six months, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, pointed out.

“Overall economic growth remains strong, but rising inflation is already impacting consumer sentiment, which has markedly declined in recent months,” he said in a press release. The impact of rate increases and continued high home demand have led to a significant drop in mortgage volume so far in 2022.

As the 30-year rate retreated slightly downward over the past week, averages of the 15-year fixed and adjustable rates also flattened. The 15-year average edged down by a single basis point to 3.14% from 3.15% seven days earlier. A year ago, the rate came in at 2.34%.

The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage remained at 2.98% week over week, just slightly below its average from one year ago, when it sat at 2.99%.