U.S. presidential vote will be influenced by home affordability for many

Consumer sentiment regarding home prices will play an important role in who Americans choose for president in 2024, according to new research from Redfin.

More than half of U.S. households — 53.2% —  said their election decision will be influenced by housing affordability, the online real estate brokerage determined in a February survey. Among that group, 17.9% completely agreed that affordability would affect their choice, while 35.3% somewhat concurred.  

The results point to the significant extent current housing market challenges are impacting the American public, as interest rates, rising prices and limited availability all make homeownership more difficult to achieve, said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.

"While the economy is strong on paper, a lot of families aren't feeling the benefits because they're struggling to afford the house they want or already live in. As a result, many feel stuck, unable to make their desired moves and life upgrades," she said in a press release.

The Redfin-commissioned research was conducted by Qualtrics, which surveyed approximately 3,000 U.S. homeowners and renters.

At the other end of the scale, though, 19.9% of survey respondents said housing affordability had no sway over their presidential election decision-making, while another 26.9% also disagreed with the view, but to a lesser degree.   

But whether or not they think home prices will ultimately affect their vote, 64.2% of respondents said the lack of affordability made them feel negative about the economy, running counter to monthly reports that generally point to a strong national post-pandemic recovery.

In his State of the Union remarks last week, President Biden appeared to recognize how housing challenges might tax consumers in 2024. His speech included several proposals aimed at improving affordability, including tax credits and buyer and seller incentives, as well as an announcement of a pilot to eliminate title insurance requirements for some refinances. 

He also reiterated plans for expanding U.S. housing supply, which would go furthest in addressing current challenges, Fairweather said. 

"If 2 million homes are actually built over the next several years like President Biden is proposing, that's where the rubber will meet the road in addressing housing affordability."

While critical of some components of the president's proposals, the National Association of Realtors welcomed his supply goals. "The administration's increasing focus on housing production, however, signals a positive turn, as the housing shortage is the root of our affordability crisis," said NAR President Kevin Sears.