Refis stall on tepid interest rate declines

Refinance demand is stalling after a two-week growth spurt last month. 

Overall, applications were up to close August, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Its Market Composite Index measure of activity was up 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending Aug. 30, compared to the seven days prior. 

A Purchase Index up 3% week-over-week helped the measurement notch its fourth rise in five weeks. But the Refinance Index was down 0.3% from Aug. 23 to Aug. 30. Refinances are on a three-week slide after shooting up 34.5% on a weekly basis early last month. Still, the MBA reports the Refinance Index up 94% compared to the same time last year. 

The shifts came as the average contract interest rate fell weekly for all but 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. The 30-year fixed rate for conforming loan balances was 6.43% last week, compared to 6.44% the week prior per the MBA's data. Points increased only slightly, to 0.56 from 0.54 the week prior, for 80% loan-to-value loans.

"The refinance share of applications made up almost 46% in August, the highest monthly average since March 2022," Joel Kan, MBA vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a press release.

Tustin, California-based New American Funding saw mortgage volume consistent in the past month, said Jason Obradovich, chief investment officer at the lender. The company saw a slight volume dip with Labor Day weekend, but like others in the industry, anticipates more demand on the horizon.

"Overall, as far as the industry is concerned, we see a slight reduction in purchase activity which we believe is due to borrowers waiting for the FOMC to reduce rates before purchasing a home," said Obradovich in an emailed statement. 

Economists are anticipating that the Federal Reserve wil make a long-awaited interest rate cut this month, which could offer a boost to the housing market. Recent analyses have found affordability easing this summer, but industry voices recently downgraded their annual originations forecasts. 

Overall, both the refinance and adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity ending Aug. 30 were flat week-over-week, at 46.4% and 5.5%, respectively. 

Applications for Department of Veterans Affairs-backed loans drove demand for government mortgages, with the VA share of activity rising from 15.9% to 16.7% week-over-week. The FHA share moved backwards, accounting for 14.6% of applications last week compared to 15.3% a week earlier. 

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed interest rates increased to 5.98% last week from 5.88% over the prior period. Also unchanged weekly at 5.98% were average rates for 5/1 ARMs. 

Average contract interest rates for 30-year fixed jumbo loans fell to 6.73% from 6.75%, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.56 two weeks ago. Thirty-year fixed-rate FHA rates also dropped to 6.30% last week, from 6.36% ending Aug. 23.