How home sales are changing with the lock-in effect easing

The lock-in effect of homeowners clinging to their ultra-low rates is letting up.

The housing market last month had the highest number of active listings since April 2020, according to Realtor.com. The number of newly listed residential properties in September was also up 11.6% from the same time last year. More inventory and easing affordability however hasn't translated into more sales, research by both Realtor.com and Redfin said this week.

According to Redfin, sales are rising in larger metropolitan areas. However, pending home sales in September were flat year-over-year; the highlight being the first time since January that the metric hadn't declined. 

After a late summer surge, buyer interest has stalled. Both purchase and refinance application volumes cooled toward the end of September. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage remains stuck just above 6%, after the Federal Reserve's highly-anticipated rate cut last month was priced in weeks earlier. 

There were 1,010,788 active listings in September, according to Redfin. Those houses had a median asking price of $401,700. While the 4.2 months of supply was considered "balanced" by Redfin, properties are remaining up for sale even longer. 

Homes for sale in September spent 65 days on average on the market, according to Realtor.com. Originators have cited a typical end-of-summer slog, but Realtor.com Economist  Ralph McLaughin said last month was the slowest September in five years. 

Encouragement over the lock-in effect's apparent end is also dampened by historical context. McLaughlin said inventory remains down 23.2% compared to typical levels seen from 2017 to 2019.

Realtor.com reported a median home price of $429,500 last month, down $5,000 from August. The median price per square foot however climbed 2.3%, and remains 50.8% greater than five years ago. 

"While market speed moved at the slowest rate for a September since 2019, buyers have been engaged just enough to keep prices from falling, with the median price per square foot rising on a year-over-year basis," McLaughlin said in a press release. 

Hot spots and sluggish markets

The number of listings in September were up in every region, according to Realtor.com, with the South recording a 42% annual increase in residential properties for sale. The nation's priciest metros saw significant inventory growth; Seattle saw listings rise 41.8% compared to 12 months ago. 

"We suspect this is at least partly due to the fact that homebuyers—who often are also home sellers—in more expensive markets benefit from higher nominal savings than buyers in less expensive markets," said McLaughlin. 

Almost one in every five sellers has offered a price cut, with the rate of discounts remaining about flat year-over-year. The median price last month fell the most in Miami, down 12.4% annually, according to Realtor.com. 

Pending home sales in the Sunshine State have slowed notably. West Palm Beach saw pending sales in September drop 18% compared to the same time last year, the highest rate in the country according to Redfin. The brokerage blames the slowdown on Florida's climate disasters and rising insurance and homeowners association costs.

A silver lining among the lukewarm sales data was a rise in Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index, which measures home tours and other buying services from Redfin agents. The company's measure was up 9% monthly, the best figure since April. Data from Optimal Blue this week also showed mortgage locks doubling from the end of August to the end of September.