Most baby boomer homeowners have no plans to move

The majority of baby boomers plan to stay in their homes for the long-term, which will not free up inventory, and given the age of this housing stock, add costs for their millennial children.

Almost three quarters of baby boomers, 73%, have been in their current house for 11 years or longer. Furthermore, 55% of them plan to age in place.

Those were the findings of a survey conducted by Leaf Home, a home improvement products company, and Morning Consult.

"The housing market is caught in a generational tug-of-war," said Jon Bostock, CEO of Leaf Home, in a press release. "Boomers will soon face aging-in-place hurdles, while millennials will face the surprise of homes in need of major upgrades."

Approximately half of this housing stock was built prior to 1980 and many owners never have made certain renovations, including making additions to the property, adding safety and accessibility features, or other changes that would allow them to stay in their home for longer.

"With an aging and ignored inventory of homes available in the next decade, we may see a crisis that will overwhelm the home improvement industry and strain the budgets of inheriting millennials, impacting the housing market," Bostock continued.

This data is more in line with a 2022 study from the Mortgage Bankers Association's Research Institute for Housing America, which found more than 4 million existing homes from the aging and mortality of older homeowners will come on to the market each year through 2032, providing minimal impact on housing inventory.

A Zillow study from 2019, on the other hand, foretold of a "silver tsunami" of homes hitting the market by 2037 as the baby boomer generation ages out.

If anything, the homebuilders are doing their part and increasing activity because of the lack of existing homes for sale. "But it's kind of all on their back because the boomers are getting no evidence of giving up their homes anytime soon," Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae's chief economist, said in an interview with National Mortgage News.

Fannie Mae will have a study coming out looking at what the boomers envision for the equity they hold in their homes.

"So they want to age in place," Duncan said. "They've been consistent on that. And the growth in the use of telehealth during the pandemic just contributed to this desire."

"But we wanted to specifically talk to people who are 60 years of age and older that own a home to ask them a series of questions about their thought processes, about the role that the equity in the house is going to play in their later life," Duncan continued.

As people age, the homeownership rate does peak and starts to decline for reasons such as losing a spouse, health issues or a desire to live closer to their children, added Mark Palim, deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae.

"So, as with young households, there are lifecycle issues that make it that people do sell," Palim said. "And I think all of those factors are going to continue to go on in people's lives."

The Leaf Home survey found that 61% of retired boomers and 46% who are currently working have no plans to move in the future.

But among those who plan to move, 34% of working boomers plan to relocate in the next 10 years or sooner, versus 27% of retirees. Another 15% of those still in the workforce plan to change addresses in the following 11 to 25 years, compared with 9% of those already retired.

Almost 80% of those not planning to move said they have no reason to. Slightly more than one-third added they looked to stay close to their family, while a similar number cited one of the current overhangs on the housing market in general, that it is too expensive to move.

The survey also reached out to millennials and found that among the 84% of this generation that is looking to move residences, 60% report changing households as one of the main reasons why. Almost half (47%) plan to move to a larger home.

But this generation is also pessimistic about homeownership in general, with 47% agreeing that income has not kept pace with the increased costs associated with housing.

In addition, 26% supported the notion that the housing market is rigged for the rich, while 20% felt that the American dream of homeownership is dead.

Ironically, only 10% were in concurrence with the statement that boomers are staying in their homes for too long and need to move to free up inventory for younger families.

This poll was conducted by Morning Consult on behalf of Leaf Home between Dec. 22, 2023 and Jan. 2, of 1,001 baby boomer homeowners and 1,001 millennials, who may or may not have owned their residence.

When it comes to the next large population group, 47% of Gen Zers surveyed in October by the United Way of the National Capital Area said they were uncertain about their prospects for homeownership in the future.

Currently, 47% of them are concerned about affording their rent or mortgage payments, the United Way NCA added.

Real estate portal Point2 did its own calculations about which cities are most affordable for Gen Zers to purchase a home, and found this cohort has a better opportunity in the South and Midwest.

In particular, the most affordable cities based on Point2's calculations are Fort Wayne, Indiana, followed by Corpus Christi, Texas and Detroit.

But seven of the eight most difficult cities to afford were in California, led by Fremont and San Diego. They were followed by Lexington, Kentucky.