Mortgage rates swing back up to close out 2021

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Following a one-week dip, mortgage rates moved upward again to end 2021, in spite of rising public health concerns.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.11% for the weekly period ending Dec. 30, jumping six basis points from 3.05% seven days ago and moving back into the range it had settled in for the previous month, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. In the final week of last year, the 30-year average stood at 2.67%, near an all-time low. 

“Mortgage rates have effectively been moving sideways despite the increase in new COVID cases,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a press release. “This is because incoming economic data suggests that the economy remains on firm ground, particularly cyclical industries like manufacturing and housing. Moreover, low interest rates and high-asset valuations continue to drive consumer spending”

Initial reports showed a strong holiday season, with consumer spending numbers up over both 2020 and 2019 despite record inflation compounded by supply chain issues. A recent report found that inflation might even be driving some current purchase activity in the housing market. The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index also showed home prices continuing to climb, despite cooling slightly in October. The first week of the new year brings the release of December jobs data, a report researchers and investors will be eyeing closely to gauge the country’s economic outlook.

Although the course of the coronavirus surge has increased uncertainty, Khater sees the fundamentals behind 2021’s housing market boom remaining in place over the coming year.

“While we do expect rates to rise, the push of the first-time homebuyer demographic that’s been propelling the purchase market will continue in 2022 and beyond,” he said.

In addition to the rising 30-year rate, other major terms saw a similar uptick for the week, with the 15-year average climbing three basis points to 2.33% compared to 2.3% in the prior reporting period. One year ago, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage came in at 2.17%.

The 5-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 2.41%, up from 2.37% the previous week. In the same week of 2020, the 5/1 ARM stood at 2.71%.

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