For the first time since mid-December, average mortgage rates broke back above the 6.7% mark because
The 30-year fixed-rate loan was 13 basis points higher on a
This week the 15-year FRM moved back above 6% for the first time since December, up 22 basis points to 6.12% from 5.9% for the week of Feb. 8. At this time in 2022, it was at 5.51%.
The news from the Consumer Price Index report, which came as a surprise to some, could affect the upcoming spring purchase market.
"The economy has been performing well so far this year and rates may stay higher for longer, potentially slowing the spring homebuying season," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac chief economist, in a press release. "According to our data, mortgage applications to buy a home so far in 2024 are down in more than half of all states compared to a year earlier."
The Freddie Mac survey had been in a range between 6.6% and 6.7% since Dec. 19, after dropping below 7% the prior week, while other indicators, including Zillow's rate tracker had been more closely tracking changes in the 10-year Treasury yield.
As of Thursday morning, Zillow put the 30-year FRM at 6.69%, up 21 basis points from last week's average of 6.48%.
"Rate cuts that the market expected in the first half of this year may simply not materialize, because strong January economic data raised the risk that disinflation could be stalling," said Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans, in a statement issued Wednesday night. "As a result, yields and mortgage rates soared. Mortgage rates bottomed in the last week of December and have trended up ever since."
The 10-year yield was at 4.25% as of 11:30 a.m. eastern time on Thursday morning, down nearly 2 basis points on the day, but it peaked at 4.32% on Wednesday.
On Feb. 1, the 10-year was at 3.86%.
Redfin's economists expect rates to remain around 7% in the near term.
"Activity should pick up a bit in the spring, partly because it'll be selling season and partly because people are getting more and more accustomed to elevated rates," Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao said in a press release. "We expect mortgage rates to start declining later in the spring as inflation eases and the Fed finally starts cutting interest rates."
Divounguy is relatively bullish on the near-term for home sales activity as well. The problem last spring was that people weren't selling homes.
"New listings are higher this year, giving buyers more options," Divounguy continued. "If layoffs remain low, and core inflation continues to moderate, housing market activity should rebound modestly this spring — with slightly lower price growth but more sales."
Meanwhile the Personal Consumption Expenditures index has been below the target for the past three months, Divounguy said, and issued a warning to the market: Be ready: the release of the PCE report in two weeks will likely cause more rate volatility."
