Mortgage rates rise on economic uncertainty

Mortgage rates increased this past week, as Treasury yields increased most of the week on economic uncertainty, although Wednesday morning news drove those lower again.

In the six days between June 28 and July 2, the 10-year Treasury rose 15 basis points to 4.44%. But by 11 a.m. those dropped by 10 basis points on weaker-than-forecast economic data, particularly around private sector jobs.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.95% on July 3, up from 6.86% six days prior and 6.81% for the same week in 2023, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey said.

The survey was released a day early and adjusted for the July 4 Independence Day holiday.

"Both new home and pending home sales are down, causing active listings to rise," Sam Khater, Freddie Mac chief economist, said in a press release. "We are still expecting rates to moderately decrease in the second half of the year and given additional inventory, price growth should temper, boding well for interested homebuyers."

The 15-year FRM also increased by 9 basis points to 6.25%, from last week's 6.16%. It is also 1 basis point higher than where it was for this period last year, when it was 6.24%.

Zillow's rate tracker had the 30-year FRM at 6.78% on Wednesday morning, down 1 basis point on the day, but up 14 basis points from the previous week's average.

Lender Price data posted on the National Mortgage News website was back over 7% at that same time, to 7.023%, compared with 6.995% six days earlier.

The increase in the 10-year Treasury earlier in the week should not necessarily translate to higher mortgage rates, said Eric Hagen, analyst at BTIG, in a July 2 mortgage finance roundup report.

"With gain-on-sale margins for originators already near the tights, mortgage rates should have decent support to stay below 7% if the 10-year is capped around its [year-to-date] high of 4.75%," Hagen said.

Going forward, Hagen said forecasting non-bank originations was "sensitive" because of banks ceding market share, no matter where rates are, as a result of "the more punitive proposals for Basel III."

That would lead to those banks having to hold more capital against unused warehouse lines of credit, "which could deliver a disproportionate impact to smaller depositories and other lenders," he continued.