Mortgage rates rise on anticipation of economic news

Mortgage rates moved up slightly last week, in anticipation of news regarding economic growth and inflation on Thursday morning. When those reports did come out, they drove down the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury used to price loans.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.78% on July 25, compared with 6.77% one week earlier but lower than the 6.81% for the same time in 2023, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported.

Meanwhile, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.07%, up from last week at 6.05% but lower than a year ago at 6.11%.

"Mortgage rates essentially remained flat from last week but have decreased nearly half a percent from their peak earlier this year," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, in a press release. "Despite these lower rates, buyers continue to pause, as reflected in tumbling new and existing home sales data."

Lender Price product and pricing engine data posted on the National Mortgage News website put the 30-year fixed at 6.868% as of 11 a.m., up from 6.85% a week ago.

On Zillow's rate tracker, the 30-year FRM at 11 a.m. on Thursday was at 6.43%, 6 basis points lower than Wednesday and equal to last week's average rate.

Rates had ticked up earlier this week in anticipation of reports on inflation and economic growth, a Wednesday evening statement from Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans.

"Fed fund futures currently indicate traders are pricing in three rate cuts before the end of the year," Divounguy said. "But accelerating economic growth, higher-than-anticipated inflation readings, and fewer rate cuts could drive Treasury yields higher."

Even though the 10-year Treasury yield was up 2 basis points from the July 18 close, at 4.22% at 11 a.m. on Thursday morning, it was 7 basis points lower than the previous day.

The change was likely a result of the U.S. gross domestic product report for the second quarter, showing growth of 2.8%, double that of the period ended March 31.

This report is consistent with other recent news and that should provide enough confidence for the Federal Open Market Committee to cut short-term rates in September, Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in a statement.

Fratantoni's expectations have been for two rate cuts this year, with the first to take place at the September meeting. No economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer expect the Fed to act at the July meeting next week.

"Weaker net exports reflect a global economy that continues to operate in a lower gear as well as a stronger dollar," Fratantoni said. "While top line growth is above the pace needed to keep the unemployment rate from rising further, the components do suggest the economy may slow from here."

But the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 2.9% in the quarter, versus the expected 2.7%, said Emma Wall, head of investment analysis and research, at U.K.-based investment firm Hargreaves Lansdown. The quarterly data is included in the GDP report; the monthly PCE is due out tomorrow.

"While this is higher than target, it is falling and coupled with a robust economic growth figure, it lessens the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates next week," Wall said. "We expect an interest rate bonanza in September with rate cuts from the Fed, European Central Bank and the Bank of England."

Former New York Fed President William Dudley wrote an opinion piece for Bloomberg on Wednesday calling for the Fed to cut rates at the July meeting.

In comments on the Dudley piece, Louis Navellier, an investment banker, said if he was in charge of the Fed, he would cut rates at the July and September meetings. 

"However, the Fed will most likely issue a dovish FOMC statement on July 31 to set up an impending key interest rates cut on Sept. 18," Navellier said. "After the November Presidential election, I expect another Fed rate cut on Nov. 7."