Mortgage rates rise for first time since March: Freddie Mac

For the first time since early March, mortgage rates increased this week, which Freddie Mac is attributing to shifting expectations about the economy.

Its Primary Mortgage Market Survey for April 20 found the 30-year fixed rate loan averaged 6.39%, up 12 basis points from 6.27% for the prior week and 128 basis points from 5.11% one year earlier.

Meanwhile, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.76%, up 22 basis points from April 13th's 5.54%. Last year at this time, it averaged 4.38%.

The PMMS had not recorded an increase in the 30-year FRM since March 9.

"Home prices have stabilized somewhat, but with supply tight and rates stuck above 6%, affordable housing continues to be a serious issue for many potential homebuyers," Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in a press release. "Unless rates drop into the mid-5% range, demand will only modestly recover."

Recent Consumer Price Index core inflation data has market observers looking at another 25 basis point increase by the Federal Open Market Committee at its next meeting.

"The annual change in core CPI edged up to 5.6% in March from 5.5% in February, pushing long-term yields upward as well as the mortgage rates they tend to influence," Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans, said in a statement issued Wednesday night. That number is more than double the Fed's 2% target.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury has moved up from a low of 3.27% on April 5 to 3.64% when it closed on April 19.

"Of course, much uncertainty remains — the Fed's own forecast suggests the U.S. economy could fall into a mild contraction this year — but mortgage rate volatility will likely remain elevated until core inflation begins to fall more convincingly towards the Federal Reserve's inflation target," said Divounguy.