Mortgage rates rose
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased by 5 basis points this week to 7.22%, tying a level last seen at the end of November, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey found.
For April 25, the 30-year FRM was at 7.17%, while
For the 15-year FRM, the average rose three basis points, to 6.47%, from 6.44% and a year ago at this time, the 15-year it averaged 5.76%.
"With two months left of this historically busy period, potential homebuyers will likely not see relief from rising rates anytime soon," Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in a press release. "However, many seem to have acclimated to these higher rates, as demonstrated by the
According to LenderPrice data posted late morning on Thursday on the National Mortgage News website, the 30-year FRM was at 7.36%, nearly 10 basis points lower than it was at the same time last week, 7.457%.
One of the elements in pricing mortgages, the 10-year Treasury yield, has remained elevated, even though it was down from one week ago, when on April 25, it peaked at 4.74%. By April 29, it closed at 4.61%.
This reflects market conditions following the
Rates are likely to remain in the 7% range in the future, said Richard Martin, director, real estate lending solutions for analytics firm Curinos, which also tracks mortgage rate data. He added that while he expects rates to fall a bit by the end of the year, he is a little more bearish than Fannie Mae's latest outlook.
In terms of the impact on mortgage rates, the Fed's decision was anticipated and already priced in.
"I like to characterize it as no one predicted the level and pace of increases no one's going to predict the level and paces of decreases," Martin said. If the FOMC was to cut rates, it would likely be closer to the end of the year.
On April 30, the first day of the FOMC meeting, the yield moved higher again, by a little over 7 basis points to just shy of 4.68%. However, the next day, it went down to 4.60%.
As of mid-morning on Thursday, the 10-year yield was almost 4 basis points higher.
Where mortgage rates currently are makes the environment tough for mortgage originators and title underwriters, but is good for companies that are "servicing-heavy," said Bose George in a commentary issued after the FOMC meeting.
"Despite the headwinds around mortgage volumes, stable home price appreciation should remain a positive for mortgage credit," George said.
Martin expects rates to hold in the current range, as does Redfin's economic research lead Chen Zhao.
"The Fed meeting is unlikely to push mortgage rates down — but the good news is that it won't push them up, either, which could have happened if the Fed took 2024 rate cuts off the table," Zhao said in a press release. "Even though housing costs shouldn't climb much more, they will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, which could push more buyers away."
Martin is leaning towards a mild recession occurring in the future, noting the U.S. economy is not yet out of the woods.
The 10-year Treasury is just one influence on mortgage pricing; the other is the primary-secondary market spreads related to securitization activity.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the Fed will reinvest any proceeds from mortgage-backed securities run-off over $35 billion into Treasuries. That translates into lower purchase activity
"While this is in line with market expectations, we think this will continue to be negative technical for agency MBS," George said.
It is not just those spreads that could influence pricing, Martin said, noting the
Homebuyers are still suffering from interest rate shock, said Jeremy Sicklick, CEO of real estate firm HouseCanary. "With mortgage rates creeping over 7%, many buyers and sellers alike seem to be holding out for rate cuts in the months ahead before jumping into the housing market," Sicklick said in a press release.
HouseCanary data found the median price of all single-family listings rose 3.2% over a year ago, while closed listings rose 8%.
"With high mortgage rates and surging home prices tamping down market activity, we expect to see a subdued spring buying season continue throughout May, despite inventory increases," Sicklick declared.
But besides higher rates, the problems around
"I think we've got to solve for those in concert," Martin said. "Lower rates will help but I don't think it's enough to really materially move that needle."
