Mortgage rates flat in spite of Treasury yield spikes

Even as the 10-year Treasury yield soared back over 4% in the past seven days, rates on the 30-year fixed loan remained in the same range as in the past several weeks, gaining a scant basis point, according to Freddie Mac.

The 30-year FRM averaged 6.64%, up slightly from last week when it averaged 6.63 percent, the Primary Mortgage Market Survey for Feb. 8 found. A year ago at this time it averaged 6.12%.

But the 10-year Treasury was at 4.16% at 11:30 on Thursday morning, 30 basis points higher than the 3.86% close on Feb. 1. The gain was attributed in part to Federal Reserve Board member comments following last week's meeting.

The 15-year FRM actually decreased from the prior week, to 5.9% from 5.94%, while for this same time last year, it was 5.25%.

"The economy and labor market remain strong with wage growth outpacing inflation, which is keeping consumer spending robust," Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in a press release. "Meanwhile, affordability in the housing market is an ongoing issue due to continued high home prices, elevated mortgage rates and low supply of homes on the market, particularly for first-time and low-income homebuyers."

Freddie Mac's survey uses data from applications submitted through Loan Product Advisor.

Zillow's rate tracker, which uses offers made through the site, increased 25 basis points from last week's average, to 6.43% from 6.25%.

That increase was due to the strength of last Friday's labor report, said Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans, in a statement issued Wednesday night.

"Although inflation continued to ease at the end of 2023, revisions to employment data suggest the labor market isn't cooling as fast as previously thought, and wage growth remains well above a level that is consistent with the Federal Reserve's two percent inflation target," Divounguy said.

Furthermore, the fact that total hours worked fell, contributing in part to the increase in average hourly earnings, was not such a positive data point.

"If layoffs remain low, and core inflation continues to moderate, mortgage rates aren't expected to rise further," Divounguy said. "Market participants will be looking to next week's consumer price index report for signs that inflation is still headed in the right direction."

The Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Application Survey also reported higher rates when it was released on Wednesday.

"Stronger than expected data on jobs created volatility in Treasury yields last week, leading to an increase in mortgage rates," Robert Broeksmit, president and CEO, said in a statement issued Thursday. "Despite these higher rates, applications increased for the fourth time in five weeks, as demand for refinances and home purchases continues to slowly grow as rates remain below their peak from last fall."