Mortgage rates fall with the cooling pace of inflation

Average mortgage rates dropped for the second week in a row, thanks to signs of slowing economic growth, according to Freddie Mac. 

The average 30-year rate declined 4 basis points to 6.95% from 6.99% seven days earlier, according to the government-sponsored enterprise's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. It was the fifth decline out of the last six weeks. The latest mark came in higher, though, than the 6.69% average of a year ago.

Freddie Mac also reported the 15-year fixed average took a 12 basis point plunge to 6.17% from 6.29% week over week.  

"Mortgage rates continued to fall back this week as incoming data suggests the economy is cooling to a more sustainable level of growth," said Freddie Mac's Chief Economist Sam Khater. 

Khater's comments come just one day after the U.S. government's latest Consumer Price Index showed inflation increasing at a slower pace than expected last month. The 3.3% rate of growth was also the first annual pullback since January. 

While offering no clear signal of immediate monetary policy change, remarks coming from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee this week also appeared to indicate that central bank officials felt economic growth was contracting at an agreeable level to potentially slash its lending rates later this year. 

The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences mortgage rate movements and typically moves in the same direction, opened trading Thursday at 4.3%, dropping steeply immediately after the previous day's CPI release. Over the past week, the yield sat between 4.28% last Thursday to a closing high of 4.47% on June 10, driven higher by a stronger-than-expected May jobs report. 

Other rate sources also pointed to a downward trend. As of midday Thursday, the average 30-year fixed rate according to Lender Price sat at 6.84%, decreasing from 6.96% a week ago. Meanwhile the 15-year was at 6.36%.

Zillow's rate tracker similarly showed the 30-year average falling down to 6.52%, a 6 basis point drop from the prior Thursday's average.  

The current rates, which have remained more than two times higher from where they 

stood in 2021, are leaving a lasting impression on the housing market.   

"High-for-longer interest rates have become more restrictive, causing potential buyers to pull back and resulting in a large increase in housing inventory when compared to a year ago," said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, in a statement. Divounguy added that he expected home values to decline in the next 12 months.

With consumers seemingly showing signs they understand mortgage rates will not descend back to 2021 levels in the near term, analysts are expecting a market shift next year.

"We expect the trajectory of rates going into 2025 to have a much more significant impact on sentiment, valuation and our estimates than the level at which rates exit 2024," said researchers at Keefe Bruyette & Woods. 

The week's announcements offered some promise to an industry that saw business fall off by more than 60% between 2021 and 2023.  

"A further decline in mortgage rates, coupled with reports of rising inventory levels in markets across the country, is good news for prospective home buyers this summer," said Mortgage Bankers Association President and CEO Bob Broeskmit.

But while inflation may be slowing, this week's data also showed the growth in shelter prices, a measure of rents and homeownership costs.  

"Housing affordability continues to be an ongoing impediment for buyers on the house hunt," Khater said.