Mortgage professionals sound off on elections, Federal Reserve

With the election two weeks away, national polls on the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump show it'll be a close contest. Mortgage professionals, however, are clearly leaning towards one candidate over the other in terms of which could best help their industry.

The majority of respondents to an Arizent survey, parent company of National Mortgage News, said they were unhappy with the current political climate. 

KEEP READING: What different election scenarios mean for real estate

Out of 98 respondents – including those that work in the mortgage world in the capacity of executives, management to staff – 92% said they are dissatisfied with the current political climate and only 7% said they are satisfied. 

Additionally, the majority, 58% of those surveyed, say the shift of the Democratic candidate from President Biden to Harris did not change expectations for how a Democratic White House would affect the mortgage industry.

Here are further insights from Arizent's election survey:

The Harris vs. Trump question

Out of the 98 respondents in the survey, 50% voted Republican during the last election, with 42% voting Democratic.

This time around, hope for a Republican win is running high among mortgage professionals.

Arizent's survey shows that 54% of respondents think the best possible outcome for the country would be Republicans in office versus 41% thinking Democrats would be the best choice.

But an even higher percentage believes that Republicans in office would be beneficial for the mortgage industry.

If Trump gets elected, 56% say his impact on the mortgage industry specifically would be positive, while 33% say it will either be slightly negative or very negative.

On the other hand, only 31% of respondents say a Harris presidency would be a positive for the industry, 50% say it will be a negative and 11% of professionals surveyed expect no impact.

Key issues that those surveyed want the next administration and Congress to tackle include high interest rates (73%), the economy (60%), affordable housing (56%), and immigration (40%).

Federal Reserve thoughts

The Federal Reserve and its policies have been a hot button issue for the mortgage industry.

As was long awaited, the Fed moved to cut rates in September by 50 basis points. And though it did not cause as much of a refinance wave as some may have hoped, it did fuel further hope of another rate cut to follow.

The majority (53%) of mortgage professionals surveyed say the cut will not have any bearing on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Closely behind is 43% of respondents who think the cut benefits Harris' chance of being elected, while only 7% say it's an advantage to Trump in the elections.

Mortgage professionals believe that the Fed is aware of the political climate and parties in power. An overwhelming 79% of respondents say the Fed takes political considerations into account when setting monetary policy, while only 15% don't agree.

Opinions differ on how the Fed's autonomy will be impacted by a new administration.

A chunk of those surveyed (43%) believe that the Fed, which operates independently from the the executive branch, will be curtailed under a Trump presidency. Meanwhile, about 50% believe the Fed's independence won't change at all if the election is won by Harris in November.

Expectations after the election

A majority of mortgage professionals believe a Trump presidency would be a boon to the stock market if he is elected into office a second time.

If Trump wins the 2024 election, 55% of respondents believe that the stock market will rally, with only 13% saying it's an unlikely outcome. Additionally, 65% of professionals say there will be more business investment if Trump is in office and more than half (57%) of respondents think the economy will recover faster.

Additionally, 50% of those surveyed say unemployment will dip if the administration is Republican.

A recent tally shows the United States added 142,000 jobs in August, below the 161,000 estimate but outpacing the number of additions the previous month. Total unemployment fell as forecast to 4.2% from 4.3%.

Regarding geopolitics, 43% think there will be less geopolitical uncertainty with Trump in office, while 34% predict there will be more.

Almost half of respondents (41%) think it is urgent for the next administration to address current wars and potential conflicts in different parts of the world, including Ukraine and Israel.