Mortgage jobs have hit a May 2020 low but may rise from here

Employment among nonbank mortgage bankers and brokers in November inched down to a low not seen since early in the course of the pandemic, Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates show.

Those representative estimates suggest there were around 325,400 people employed in these categories during the month, down from an upwardly revised 328,200 in October. Mortgage job numbers were last this low in May 2020.

The November 2023 number, juxtaposed with a recent Arizent survey that suggests companies plan to hire this year, raises questions as to whether industry jobs have bottomed out.

Much may depend on interest rate direction as well as how and to what extent borrowers can or will respond if loan costs fall. Many obtained record-low rates during the pandemic leaving them with little incentive to get new loans, and inventory has been limited.

The broader BLS numbers released Friday were in line with an economy that supports a drop in rates but one that may be slower than previously anticipated, some economists said in statements. Jobs overall rose by 216,000 in December. Unemployment stayed at 3.7%.

(The bureau reported these overall numbers with less of a lag than the industry-specific ones.)

"In summary, this report shows a job market little changed from November," Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said. "We expect the economy will slow down in 2024, and this will likely lead to increases in the unemployment rate.

"In terms of implications for the housing market, these data are likely to keep interest rates from falling further at this point, but we expect mortgage rates to drift down over the year," he added.

While the addition to overall employment wasn't large, it was a little higher than the 179,000 previously forecast, which means monetary policymakers may not act as quickly to cut as they otherwise might have.

"There's every chance the Federal Reserve will demand a run of softer macro readings before hitting the rewind button on rates," Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at British financial services Firm Hargreaves Lansdown, said.

Also significant to the housing market within Friday's employment numbers were signs inventory conditions could improve this year, Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan said, noting that residential construction, including specialty trade contractors, was up in December.

The number of positions in those categories increased by 5,500 during the month and the total for 2023 was over 40,000, Duncan noted.

"The resilience of residential construction despite mortgage rates averaging 6.8% over the year highlights the continued demand for new housing and bodes well for starts activity in 2024," the Fannie Mae economist said.

But there was considerable variation in combined commercial and residential construction employment by state in the latest employment numbers, some of which may be seasonal, with 27 reporting consecutive-month gains, 20 reporting losses and the other three unchanged.

"Texas, with the highest increase, added 9,200 construction jobs, while New York, on the other end of the spectrum, lost 5,200 jobs," Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president, forecasting and analysis, National Association of Homebuilders, said in a blog post.