Mortgage job cuts slow for market's peak season

Estimates for mortgage employment data were stable to slightly lower in the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, suggesting hesitancy to cut during a period when housing activity typically picks up.

The nonbank mortgage estimate for payroll numbers was 269,400 in March compared to 269,900 in February.

Whether the near-plateau in job numbers mean more long-term stabilization remains to be seen and may hinge largely on how fruitful what's typically a peak period for the industry is. 

After one of the most challenging years for profitability since the Great Recession, mortgage bankers and brokers are still in a position where they may feel they need to cut or furlough employees to balance their books, but they don't want to lose out on new business.

"A lot is going to be determined depending on how this spring buying season goes," said Marina Walsh, vice president of industry analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Also a key determinant will be interest rate policy, and some economists think weakness in broader employment numbers reported Friday could put more pressure on officials to lower financing costs.

In those numbers, which are reported with less of a lag than those reflecting mortgage broker and banker positions, 175,000 jobs were added in April. While there also were upward revisions the past two months, that number was lower than the 242,000 for the previous 12 months.

"The Fed indicated earlier this week that they are in no hurry to cut rates given the persistence of higher inflation. However, today's report might give them some leeway to do so," said Joel Kan, the MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist, in an email.

Adding to signs of a slowing economy was a little bit of an increase in the overall unemployment rate to 3.9%. Average hourly earnings also ran at a rate of 3.9% during the month, the slowest they've been since May 2021 and marking the third consecutive deceleration seen in this area.

"This slowdown in wage growth indicates there has been some cooling in hiring and will help ease some of the upward pressure on service sector inflation, which has been one of the drivers keeping overall inflation elevated," Kan said.

How compelling the report is to monetary policymakers charged with interest-rate decisions may depend on the next round of inflation numbers.

"Inflation reports will be key to the Fed's outlook," said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American, in an email. "But this April jobs report is important in that it can ease Fed fears of any potential overheating in the labor market."

While a policy reaction to the jobs report may take time to emerge, the bond market had already reacted to it Friday morning and could have some near-term implications for housing finance.

"The soft jobs report may bring some immediate mortgage rate relief to the spring home buying season," she said, noting that the 10-year Treasury yield initially fell below 4.5% in an immediate response to the jobs report, "which will put some downward pressure on mortgage rates."

The benchmark yield had rebounded slightly back above that level to 4.52% shortly before 10:30 a.m. Eastern, but was still lower than where it opened the day at 4.58%