Mortgage hiring rises, U.S. job additions outpace estimates

A run of low mortgage rates lifted industry hiring indicators in February. But there was an unexpected development in the additions to overall jobs the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported for March that could augur change for market conditions.

The addition of 228,000 U.S. jobs last month outpaced estimates for 140,000 and left unemployment at 4.2%. A drop in mortgage hiring during the slow month of January was followed by a pickup in February, according to revised BLS numbers.

Despite the unexpectedly high additions, there is underlying weakness in a U.S. job market, where vacillating public sector cuts totaled 4,000 in March, said Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni.

"In light of the tariff announcements this week and the sharp drop in stock markets around the world in response, these data are likely not capturing the moment with respect to the actual strength of the economy," he said in a report issued Friday.

Officials might want to see a change in inflation numbers before they make any concrete moverelated to rates in monetary policy.

"The Federal Reserve, in data-dependent mode, is likely to remain cautious with respect to any rate cuts so long as inflation is above target, and the job market data continues to come in strong," Fratantoni said.

Although tariff policy recently tanked equities and put downward pressure on rate-indicative bond yields, there are questions about whether it could introduce inflationary pressures to the economy over time.

The mixed economic data adds to concerns that started to surface late last year about whether mortgage company spending dominated by personnel investments has been appropriately aligned with market conditions.

The average mortgage banker went back to operating at a loss in the fourth quarter of last year after generating profits over the two previous fiscal periods, according to MBA's data.