Employment numbers both nationwide and in the mortgage industry came in virtually unchanged in the latest government jobs report, and the latter could expect to see additional softening as it further right-sizes.
Nonbank mortgage lender and broker employment data showed a minimal uptick in September, rising by less than half a percent from the prior month to 272,900, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number increased
While the mortgage industry
But productivity ultimately will
Using a historic norm of 1.8 loans produced per employee per month, the industry still has not yet caught up to that benchmark, according to the trade group's research.
"We're still at 1.4," he said. "There are two ways you can close that gap. One is either more loans, the other is fewer employees, and I think it's probably going to be both," he said.
Still, while further consolidation is anticipated, some lenders also reported in recent months they planned to hire in expectation of higher business volumes after incurring sharp cuts during a prolonged three-year slowdown, MBA added.
At its annual conference in Denver this week, the trade group forecasted $1.8 million in mortgage volume to come in 2025, up from $1.4 million this year. Per-loan production income should
Recent technology investments made by businesses will play a role in hiring strategy as well, Fratantoni said, saying there was an ongoing goal to make businesses "more scalable, more flexible, so that you don't have to hire and fire to the same extent.
"I think some of the technology investments are certainly helping to achieve that."
Across the country, the U.S. added 12,000 jobs overall in October, with momentum slowing significantly from the higher-than-expected jump of 223,000 a month earlier, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's monthly report.
October's total was also below the consensus estimate of 112,500. While subdued on paper, some financial experts cautioned that the latest data might not be fully representative of the U.S. economy following recent natural disasters. An ongoing labor dispute at Boeing also removed several thousand workers from payrolls.
Data collection followed normal procedures, but the bureau said it was "likely" that estimates in some industries were affected by the effects of recent hurricanes. "The establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events," the report advised.
The October number, though, virtually guarantees another rate cut at next week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. A strong September number alongside
The probability of a 25-basis-point reduction is currently 99.5%, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, but the effect on mortgage businesses may be limited.
"Mortgage rates have largely priced in expected Fed rate cuts but may decline modestly from their recently elevated levels as 10-year Treasury yields have retreated modestly based on today's news," said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, in a press release.
"It is unlikely that rates will fall significantly and sustainably below 6% this year, but a slowing labor market is good news for the Fed as it continues to navigate the economy to a soft landing," Fleming added.
The most recent 30-year fixed rate weekly average came in at 6.72%,
