Mortgage delinquencies rise on higher rates, disasters, jobs

Mortgage delinquency rates rose on an annual basis for the fourth consecutive month. With the exception of the early months of the pandemic in 2020, this is the longest stretch since 2018, the First Look report from ICE Mortgage Technology found.

The total delinquency rate, defined as loans 30 days or more late on payment but not yet in foreclosure, was 3.48% in September. That was an increase of 4.3% compared to August's 334 basis point rate and up by 5.74% compared with September 2023's rate of 329 basis points.

This data follows the Mortgage Bankers Association's recent report that performance on loans that had been in forbearance (borrowers who have at one point been distressed) has been slipping over the past four months.

"The gradual rise in mortgage delinquencies is due to a combination of factors," Andy Walden, ICE vice president of research and economics, said in an emailed comment. "Elevated interest rates over the past couple of years have resulted in higher debt-to-income ratios; modest rises in unemployment, along with recent natural disasters have made it more difficult for some homeowners to make their mortgage payments; and all of that is happening with the context of the post-COVID normalization of the mortgage market."

In an even greater sign of problems, serious delinquencies (borrowers 90 days or more late on payments not in foreclosure) increased by 5.9% month over month, to their highest level in 16 months.

But since it takes some time for the foreclosure process to be initiated, those numbers are not as telling as to current borrower distress. 

If anything, loans in active foreclosure were up approximately 0.4% compared with August, but down were 12.5% from this time last year and still 34% below pre-pandemic levels, ICE Mortgage Technology found.

Servicers made 26,000 foreclosure during September, down 5.4% versus August but up by 2.02% from the same month last year.

The month ended with almost 2.07 million properties either late on their payments or in foreclosure, up by 80,000 compared with August, and by 105,000 in September 2023.

Mortgage rates were still on a downward trend during September, and that showed in the prepayment speeds. The monthly prepayment speed of 64 basis points was up over 43% from the same month last year. This was the fastest in over two years, since August 2022.

The gain from August was much lower, at 2.5%.

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