Mortgage activity dries up with high rates, election stakes

Mortgage demand ahead of the election fell off a cliff. 

In the past four weeks, purchase application volume dropped 32% while the number of refinance applications sank 48.5%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Applications Survey. The trade group's top indexes fell by double digits from the week prior, as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose slightly to 6.81% for the week ending Nov. 1. 

"Applications decreased for the sixth consecutive week, with purchase activity falling to its lowest level since mid-August and refinance activity declining to the lowest level since May," said Joel Kan, the MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist, in a press release Wednesday. 

The Weekly Applications Survey remarks made no mention of the general election, which could have longer-term impacts on the housing market. Industry experts had cautioned buyers were waiting for uncertainty around Tuesday's results to settle before making a housing move. 

The MBA's overall Market Composite Index fell 10.8% on a weekly basis, driven by a 19% decline in the Refi Index. Compared to the same time last year, both indexes remain up, albeit slightly; the Purchase Index is just 2% greater. 

Influential 10-year Treasury rates have steadily climbed since dropping to 3.66% on the eve of the Federal Reserve's September cut, and ended Tuesday at 4.31%. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to cut rates again this week. 

Lenders are watching average loan sizes tumble down, with the average refinance application declining by $6,000 to $298,200 last week. The dollar volume of refi applications has fallen 57.1% in the past month, according to the MBA. 

Effective rates for most loan types tracked by the Association rose weekly, including the 30-year jumbo rising 21 basis points to 6.98%. Mortgage rates for Federal Housing Administration loans also climbed 20 basis points to 6.75%, although discount points ticked down from 0.94 to 0.87.

Rates did fall for two loan products. The 15-year FRM fell six basis points to 6.21%, while 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages saw average contract interest rates of 6.05%, a 15 point basis drop. ARM buyers also used more discount points, at 0.84 last week compared to 0.59 the week prior.