Estimates for nonbank hiring had gotten a little more optimistic this spring but broader employment jumped slightly more than anticipated in the past month, raising questions for
Hiring by independent mortgage bankers and brokers combined in May rose to 271,500 from a downwardly revised 268,600
The overall employment number, taken in isolation, could be viewed as exerting upward pressure on interest rates that could challenge the ability to sell mortgages. However, when combined with other indicators, the outlook for
"Beyond this headline, other aspects of the data indicate a slowing job market," said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, in a press statement.
The total unemployment rate that's a key indicator of mortgage performance was a little higher at 4.1%, so taken together, indications from the BLS report are mixed, according to commentary published by Mortgage Capital Trading on Friday.
"Economists had forecasted 200,000 job adds in June while the report showed 206,000, still well below the 272,000 seen in May," said Cody Echols, MCT's senior capital markets technology advisor. "The forecast was for the unemployment rate to remain at 4%."
Also, if there are more weak inflation readings, those could outweigh recent gains in jobs numbers.
"Inflation data showing more reductions for the next couple of months will be the most important evidence that the Federal Reserve needs to cut rates in September," Fratantoni said.
Other experts suggest keeping an eye on political developments to influence interest rates as well.
"This is certainly an election that the markets have to pay close attention to," said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, in an email.
