The Mortgage Bankers Association has bumped up its forecast for 2015 originations due to higher-than-expected refinancing activity. But it still is not going to be a great year.
Originations in 2014 were the "lowest in 14 years and 2015 is going to be marginally better," said MBA chief economist Michael Fratantoni.
The new 2015 forecast calls for $1.19 trillion in one-to-four family originations, up 6% from $1.12 trillion in 2014.
The chief economist noted that refinancings were higher
Back in September, the MBA estimated that 2015 originations would total $1.13 trillion, up 5% from 2014.
One good sign is that purchase mortgage originations are expected to jump 15% in 2015 to 733,000, compared to a 13% decline in 2014. Purchase loans will make up 62% of originations next year, according to the new forecast.
"The very strong jobs numbers we have gotten recently are definitely supportive" of that purchase mortgage forecast, Fratantoni said in an interview. He also noted the changes to representations and warranties has provided more buyback clarity for lenders and the introduction of the new 3% down payment loans by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has been positive in terms of access to credit.
