Inflation news could keep Fed to one rate cut this year

Mortgage rates rose 6 basis points this week as the 10-year Treasury zoomed back to levels last seen in November because of a hotter than expected inflation report, Freddie Mac found.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was at 6.88% for April 11, up from 6.82% one week earlier and from 6.27% at this point last year, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey found.

At the same time, the 15-year FRM gained 10 basis points, to 6.16% from 6.06% on April 4 and 5.54% a year ago.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, one component in mortgage pricing, hit a high of 4.59% on Thursday morning, after closing Tuesday at 4.37%. On April 4, the 10-year closed at 4.31% with a high of 4.38% on the day.

"Mortgage rates have been drifting higher for most of the year due to sustained inflation and the reevaluation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, in a press release. "While newly released inflation data from March continues to show a trend of very little movement, the financial market's reaction paints a far different economic picture."

The annual rate of inflation has been in the 3.1% to 3.7% range since June 2023, with the latest report at 3.5%. But this time, the markets reacted negatively to the news, Khater continued.

"It's clear that while the trend in inflation data has been close to flat for nearly a year, the narrative is much less clear and resembles the unrealized expectations of a recession from a year ago," Khater said.

As of late morning on April 11, Zillow's rate tracker was at 6.81%, up 4 basis points from Wednesday and 28 basis points from the previous week's average of 6.63%.

Information from Lender Price at 11:40 a.m. on Thursday now appearing on the National Mortgage News website put the average for the 30-year at 7.067%.

Because of Wednesday's Consumer Price Index report, some observers are now forecasting one single short-term rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee this year. Those actions spill over into investors' pricing of 10-year Treasurys.

Last Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics report, which was also better than observers projected, added to the FOMC's angst, said Nigel Green of foreign exchange trader DeVere. Policymakers will take a step back and observe things before they decide to pivot to making short-term rate reductions.

"As such, we expect the Fed will delay a rate cut until the third quarter of this year," Green said. "Then, we believe there will be a pause in order to assess the impact on the world's largest economy of the cut."

That means in his view, the Fed is likely to next act in January 2025.

Xander Snyder, a senior economist at First American Financial, also thinks the Fed will not cut rates at its June meeting because of the CPI report.

"This data does not contain the economic justification the Fed needs to begin rate cuts anytime soon," Snyder said. "After all, why cut rates if there is some indication of inflation reaccelerating?"

Even though disinflation looks to be in a holding pattern, it's likely just a bump on the road, said Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.

"The recent rise in energy prices is likely to ease. Although prices for transportation services – car maintenance and insurance – rose in March, the uptick was likely temporary," he said in a Wednesday night statement. "New and used car prices actually fell last month. Housing inflation has also continued to move lower."