Inflation, housing costs spook consumers

Despite recent easing, inflation comes in as the top worry for half of American consumers, and it has likely implications for future credit and mortgage borrowing.

Approximately 50% of Americans listed rising prices for daily expenses, including groceries, gas and utilities, as their top financial concern in the next six months, according to the latest quarterly consumer pulse study from Transunion. Meanwhile, 84% ranked it in their top three, the highest mark since the credit reporting and data provider began collecting such data two years ago. The latter share is up five percentage points from one year ago. 

Compounding inflation near the top of the list were mortgage costs and interest rates, with 47% and 46% of respondents putting the impact of such costs in their top three. 

"Consumers are facing distinct challenges when taking into account today's high inflation and interest rate environment," said Charlie Wise, senior vice president and head of global research and consulting at Transunion, in a press release.

"From filling up a tank of gas to making a rental payment to buying groceries, most consumers are paying more today for everyday expenses than they ever have."

The combined trends of rising prices, housing costs and interest rates may also end up taking a cut out of potential mortgage borrowing. Fourteen percent of likely credit borrowers planned to take out a mortgage in the next year, decreasing from 21% a year ago.  

The May Consumer Price Index released on Wednesday could point to some easing on the way, though. Inflation rose 3.3% annually, slowing for the first time in four months. From April to May, the index also showed prices flattening. 

For many consumers, any relief will be welcome. Only a 48% share of people in Transunion's survey said their incomes were keeping up with the rising rate of inflation, but that percentage dropped sharply among the subset of consumers expressing the most concern about price hikes. Just 26% of that group said their wages were able to keep pace with increased costs, while 42% said their finances were worse today than a year ago. 

Transunion's latest research corresponds to other recent consumer polling showing the effects of inflation on the American consumer. Research conducted by Morning Consult for the J. Ronald Terwilliger Center for Housing Policy and National Housing Conference found 23% of Americans struggling to make ends meet, with 30% indicating they were only managing to meet expenses. 

The Morning Consult poll also showed one-third of homeowners facing difficulty over the last year in making their mortgage payments. Meanwhile, 49% of renters reported struggling to make rent. 

Similarly, insurance firm Nationwide recently said a majority of 64% of consumers viewed their financial situation as only fair or poor, attributing much of that sentiment to housing costs. 

Two-thirds of people surveyed by Nationwide also expect housing costs to head higher over the coming year. Meanwhile, 21% said they had tapped into retirement savings or would consider it to help pay for housing-related expenses.

Rising financial worries could be changing consumer behavior toward borrowing and spending beyond mortgages, with 30% intending to refinance or apply for new credit in response, Transunion said. Close to 59% of the group said it would likely be in the form of new credit cards. Among those expressing concerns over inflation, 62% would apply for a new card.

Consumer anxiety might raise warning flags about future borrower performance, with delinquencies increasing 

"We have seen over the last couple of years a lot of deterioration in credit performance, and that includes credit cards, personal loans, auto loans," Wise said in an interview, attributing current delinquency trends to lending trends during the robust pandemic economy of a few years ago.

"Lenders were feeling very good about extending credit now to even riskier borrowers, because their books looked so good. Everybody was spending." 

Although mortgage delinquencies also saw small upticks, performance among borrowers remained relatively strong compared to other credit products, thanks to the amount of equity in their homes, Wise said.

But while consumers acknowledge inflation challenges, Transunion also found a sizable percentage of 55% expressing optimism about their own 12-month financial outlooks, with expectations of rising income countering more pessimistic views on current prices. Approximately 47% said they expected to see income growth in the  next year. 

Younger generations were more likely to have a positive forecast, with 62% of Generation Z expressing optimism about their finances. By comparison, less than 50% of Generation X and baby boomers held the same view.

The counterintuitive divergence in opinion about current price levels and future financial opportunity may lie in impressions the public has about what expenses should be versus economic realities.

"Their anchor is still set on what prices they think are the right prices from three years ago," Wise said. 

"The situation is getting better, but a lot of consumers don't see the difference between inflation and prices. They view them as the same."