In a surprise, mortgage rates rose this week

In a surprise, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey found the 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased by 2 basis points this week, bucking industry expectations.

The news came as investors celebrated this week's Consumer Price Index report of 2.9% annual inflation growth that pushed other mortgage rate measurements lower.

Lender Price product and pricing engine data posted on the National Mortgage News website put the 30-year fixed at 6.547% as of 11 a.m., a rather large 32 basis point drop from 6.864% a week ago.

Another PPE provider, Optimal Blue, reported the 30-year FRM at 6.439% as of Aug. 14, the latest date information is available, down from 6.506% seven days prior.

Zillow's rate tracker found the 30-year fixed at 6.1% as of 11 a.m. on Thursday morning, down 2 basis points from the previous week's average of 6.12%.

Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Application Survey for the period ended Aug. 9, found the 30-year conforming FRM at 6.54%, a 1 basis point decline from the previous week.

But the Freddie Mac PMMS was higher, at 6.49% on Aug. 15. That compares with 6.47% the prior week and 7.09% a year ago.

Varying methodologies could be responsible for the differences, as Freddie Mac gets its information from applications submitted to Loan Product Advisor, its automated underwriting system.

The 15-year FRM also rose in the Freddie Mac survey, to an average 5.66%, compared with 5.63% for Aug. 8. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.46%.

While the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 11 basis points higher on Thursday morning at 3.93%, the Aug. 14 close of 3.82% was nearly 18 basis points lower from Aug. 8 when it ended the day at just under 4%.

"While rates increased slightly this week, they remain more than half a percent lower than the same time last year," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, in a press release. "Now, the 30-year fixed-rate hovers around 6.5% and will likely trend down in the coming months as inflation continues to slow."

This week's survey did not fall as Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Bose George expected. In an Aug. 14 report, he wrote that the 30-year FRM would come in close to 6.3% this week, positing that rates are likely to move down under 6% in the near future.

That would set off a mini refinance boom, as 10% of the existing mortgage market would be able to redo their loan at that level.

"We think a large percentage of this cohort is likely to refinance since these loans are fairly new and loan sizes are large," George said. "Further, given the weak volume over the past two years, lenders are likely to aggressively solicit borrowers."

But it would only boost production "for a couple of quarters," he said, because the market is limited.

Still, at least $250 billion of incremental refinance volume during 2025 would be created if rates fell this low, George said, pointing to the July Mortgage Bankers Association projections of $591 billion.

A refi increase would "disproportionately benefit" servicers of Federal Housing Administration and Veterans Affairs mortgages, he added.

"This is because both programs offer refinances that waive many typical underwriting requirements for borrowers who are already in an FHA or VA loan," George said. "As a result, the FHA streamline refinance program and the VA interest rate reduction refinance loan (IRRRL) have responded quickly when rates fall."

The CPI report should make a September rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee a lock, said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, in a statement.

As the economy slows, the demand for safe-assets increases like long-term Treasury bonds and short-term T-bills and that should put downward pressure on yields, Divounguy said.

"The recent decline in Treasury yields, which mortgage rates tend to follow, reflects investors' expectations, meaning mortgage rates may already be near their lowest point this year," Divounguy continued. "On the supply side, large Treasury issuance like the $42 billion in 10-year notes auctioned last week could offset the downward pressure on yields."

The housing market is now in neutral territory, favoring neither buyer or seller, for the first time since December, Zillow said in a separate press release.

"If this relief from mortgage rates continues, we should see more buyers restarting their hunt for a home," said Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen. "But although rate lock among homeowners is easing, they probably won't be as motivated to jump back into the market and sell."

Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index, which looks at requests for tours and other buying services from the company's real estate agents, was down 10% year-over-year for the week ended Aug. 11. But that is the smallest drop in that metric since April.

"I was hoping more buyers would emerge when mortgage rates started declining," said Brynn Rea, a Redfin agent from Spokane, Washington, in a press release. "And while house hunting has picked up a bit, the increase isn't all that significant.

Home prices are still elevated and their budget is normally the most important factor for a buyer, Rea said.

"A lot of buyers are waiting to see if mortgage rates fall more if and when the Fed cuts interest rates, and to see what happens with the economy and the election later in the year," said Rea.