Home prices rise in over 90% of U.S. markets in 1Q: NAR

All but a handful of markets reported quarter-to-quarter home price increases in the first three months of this year, with 30% of them reporting double-digit gains, the National Association of Realtors reported.

Out of the 221 metro areas tracked, 93% or 205, had higher existing home sales prices during the period ended March 31, up from 86% in the fourth quarter of 2023, with just 15% having double-digit increases. Just 15 metro areas had lower prices.

This took place in a period where mortgage rates ranged from 6.6% to 6.94%, according to Freddie Mac data; since the end of the first quarter, rates broke above 7%.

"Astonishingly, greater than 90% of the country's metro areas experienced home price growth despite facing the highest mortgage rates in two decades," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, in a press release. "In the current market, rising prices are the direct result of insufficient housing supply not meeting the full demand."

The median price climbed 5% versus the first quarter of 2023 to $389,400. But for the second straight quarter, that median price was lower than in the prior three months; in the fourth quarter last year, the median was $391,700.

The monthly mortgage payment where the buyer put 20% down was $2,037, which was 5.7% lower compared with the fourth quarter of 2023 ($2,161) but up 9.3%, or $173, from one year ago.

For a first-time home buyer who purchased what NAR called a typical starter home valued at $331,000 and a 90% loan-to-value ratio found that the monthly mortgage payment fell slightly to $1,998, also down 5.7% from the previous quarter's $2,118. However, that was an increase of $168, or 9.2%, from one year ago when it was $1,830.

In a separate press release, Yun predicted this year's existing-home sales will rise to 4.46 million, up 9% from 4.09 million in 2023. Next year, it will increase by another 13.2% to 5.05 million units.

Yun added he expects home sales gains in eight of the next 10 years.

In that separate release, based on April's employment data, six million more jobs are in existence today compared to the pre-Covid highs, and those are boosting home prices.

"More jobs mean more home sales and higher housing demand," said Yun. "You need a strong local economy for a strong housing market."

He previously expected mortgage rates to be lower by now, as well as the Federal Open Market Committee to start dropping short-term rates.

"Whatever rate cut the Federal Reserve does not do this year will simply get pushed back to 2025," Yun said. "They're calling for a September rate cut, but we'll see."

Separately, the CoreLogic Home Price Index found year-over-year gains over 5% for the fifth consecutive month in March. With the 5.3% annual rise, it was the 146th month in a row where prices have increased.

"Home prices increased again this March beyond the typical seasonal uptick, despite mortgage rates reaching this year's high and the affordability crunch continuing to keep many prospective buyers on the sidelines," said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, in a press release.

“Even with the long-anticipated break in for-sale inventory, the surging cost of homeownership, further fueled by rising insurance and tax expenses, is holding potential home sales back, as is evident in the slow rise in sales compared with last year,” she said.

March 2023's annual change was 3.1%, and two months later, in May, year-over-year growth bottomed out at 1.4%.

The change between February and March was 1.2%, the most since April 2023 and is compared with a January-to-February change of 0.7%.

Going forward, CoreLogic expects prices to grow between March and April by 0.8% and by 3.7% through March 2025.