Home price growth could reverse in the next six months

Home price growth could reach a crescendo in the next six months, CoreLogic predicts.

Property values rose 4.8% since the beginning of the year, and are up 1.6% in June from the same time last year, according to the analytics firm's Home Price Index and HPI Forecast. Growth was uneven across the country's biggest metros, CoreLogic found, but the median single-family home price in June was steep at $376,000. 

"While the continued imbalance between buyers and sellers continues to pressure home prices, June's annual bump in price growth echoes economic resiliency, a thriving U.S. job market and strong consumer spending," said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, in a press release. 

The growth is expected to reach a 6.8% year-over-year mark in January 2024 before settling at 4.3% by next June, the forecast said. June also marked the sixth consecutive month of home price growth appreciation, and continued an 11-year streak of rising values according to Corelogic's data. 

Home prices nearly hit a 20% annual growth rate in the first quarter last year, but that pace has slowed as the housing market tightened. Mortgage rates approaching 7% have kept borrowers in their homes, creating the "lock-in" effect squeezing inventory. A recent Zillow analysis however suggested some homeowners who currently have mortgage rates above 5% aren't scared off of selling despite some of the worst affordability in decades.

Miami was the nation's hottest market in June, with 8.9% annual home price growth, followed by Detroit at 4.2%, CoreLogic found. New Jersey had the highest statewide annual home price appreciation at 6.9%.

Ten states including some of the nation's most expensive West Coast destinations, and Washington, D.C., meanwhile saw year-over-year declines in home prices. 

Some of the most popular pandemic-era locations meanwhile are likely to experience price dips. Three Florida metros, led by Cape Coral and Fort Myers, are among CoreLogic's top five most likely to see values fall. Also projected to experience declines were Spokane, Washington and Provo and Orem in Utah.