U.S. home equity declined for the first time in 11 years, but the downward trend could be short-lived, according to new data from CoreLogic.
The data
The first-quarter downturn largely reflects the deceleration and flattening of home values from month to month in the second half of 2022 after they surged to record highs less than a year earlier. But with recent data showing a small pick-up to start 2023, the current falloff may turn out to be a short-term blip rather than the beginning of a prolonged crisis, according to researchers.
"Home equity trends closely follow home price changes," said CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp in a press release. "As a result, while the average amount of equity declined from a year ago, it increased from the fourth quarter of 2022, as monthly home prices growth accelerated in early 2023."
Earlier in June, CoreLogic's Home Price Index found housing costs had continued increasing between March and April by 1.2%, and were up 2% annually, running counter to earlier predictions.
Most of the 14 states posting annual drops in home equity levels were located in the West, where housing values previously soared thanks to elevated pandemic-fueled demand. Average equity fell the most in Washington State with a decrease of $74,300, followed by California and Utah, which saw home values depreciate by $59,600 and $37,400, respectively.
On the opposite end, homeowners in Hawaii, Florida and Rhode Island gained the most in equity with growth of $24,900, $24,500 and $23,700.
The lack of any significant rise from quarter to quarter
Louisiana, Iowa and Oklahoma led all states in the share of underwater mortgages at 7%, 5.4% and 4.2%.
The rapid increase in home equity before last year's dip began is protecting many homeowners, even when they find themselves struggling to keep up with payments. Housing researchers at both Black Knight and Attom similarly noted
"The average U.S. homeowner now has more than $274,000 in equity — up significantly from $182,000 before the pandemic, Hepp said. And future trends appear to indicate that some underwater homeowners who made their purchases when prices were at their highest should be able to see some return of value, according to CoreLogic.
"While homeowners in some areas of the country who bought a property last spring have no equity as a result of price losses, forecasted home price appreciation over the next year should help many borrowers regain some of that lost equity," Hepp said.