The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey provided a bit of surprise this week, actually falling 2 basis points even as other metrics found rates moving higher starting earlier this week.
The survey pulls data from loan applications submitted through Freddie Mac's automated underwriting system, Loan Product Advisor.
It is likely loans locked when mortgage rates were lower influenced the data.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.62% as of April 10, down
Meanwhile the 15-year FRM was unchanged from last week at 5.82%. For the
"The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continues to trend down, remaining under 7% for the twelfth consecutive week," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, in a press release. "As purchase applications continue to climb, the spring home buying season is shaping up to look more favorable than last year."
But the statement did not address the broader economic issues impacting the U.S.
The tariff turmoil drove
Zillow's rate tracker was at 7.03% at 11 a.m. on Thursday, unchanged from the previous day and up 31 basis points from last week's average rate of 6.72%.
The Lender Price data at that same time posted on National Mortgage News' website, put the 30-year at 6.947%, which while lower than where it was on Wednesday, was up over 40 basis compared with a week ago at 6.552%.
"It's hard to predict the direction of mortgage rates with any conviction," Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans reiterated in her latest commentary on Wednesday afternoon, issued after rates crossed back above 7%, just days after they fell to their lowest point since October.
"Now, more than ever, shopping by home list price rather than monthly mortgage payment is outdated, given elevated volatility with borrowing costs," Ng continued.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, whose measurement period ended April 4 and thus did not include this week's gyrations in the bond market,
"Volatility in the financial markets is causing wild swings in the 10-year Treasury rate and mortgage rates," Bob Broeksmit, MBA president and CEO said in a Thursday morning commentary. "However, mortgage rates and borrower demand will likely remain volatile as economic uncertainty from tariff policies here and abroad persists."
The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.34% at 11 a.m., down from 4.4% at its Wednesday close. That was likely due to a
"Unfortunately, inflation remains painfully stubborn, well above the Fed's 2% target for lowering rate," said Gabe Abshire, Move Concierge CEO, in a statement. "Considering the housing sector has lower exposure to the current global trade environment, it would be helpful for the Fed to lower rates and boost the summer home buying market."
But in the past week, after initially declining as investors sought bonds after the tariff announcement, the 10-year market also reacted negatively and rose from 3.99% on April 4.
"The so-called safe haven has been stripped bare," said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a financial advisory, in a statement on April 9. "U.S. Treasuries are behaving more like a high-risk asset than the traditional ballast investors once relied upon."
As a result, borrowing costs, not just for mortgages, are on the rise, tightening financial conditions worldwide as global confidence remains fragile.
Tariffs are both inflationary, in the short term, and deflationary in the long-term, argued James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, in an April 9 statement.
The bond market is already taking this into account in its pricing, with the 2-yar breakeven inflation rate up 75 basis points since September.
"But 5- and 10-year breakevens are flat to slightly lower compared to earlier this year," James said. "That divergence shows investors expect short-term price pressure, but not long-term inflation risk."
