Do the latest foreclosure numbers signal trouble?

Loan performance showed signs of worsening last month, with foreclosure numbers reflecting a potential pivot to what had been improving trends among distressed borrowers.       

Foreclosure filings, including default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions, appeared on a total of 31,929 U.S. mortgaged properties in July, representing one out of every 4,414 units, according to real estate data provider Attom. 

The total increased 15% from June, when one in every 5,071 properties had a foreclosure filing. Compared to a year ago, the increase was more muted at 0.2%.

"July's foreclosure activity reflects a slight shift in the housing market," said Attom CEO Rob Barber, in a press release. 

Notable spikes in both foreclosure starts and completions from the previous month "may highlight growing pressures in certain areas," Barber added. 

New starts increased 17.7% to 21,870 from 18,574 in June. The total was also approximately 4% higher from a year ago. 

Meanwhile completions came in 13.5% higher month to month, with 3,282 units repossessed by lenders. In June, the number falling into real estate-owned status was 2,891. July's number, though, decreased 2% from a year ago. 

The new numbers marked a reversal from the first half of the year when overall foreclosure notices declined annually. 

While efforts by federal agencies and servicers to assist struggling borrowers since the pandemic have managed to keep distress to a minimum, other recent research also pointed to similar deterioration emerging in some segments of mortgage borrowers this summer. Among potential causes were climate-related disasters as well as consumer financial worries, according to a recent Mortgage Bankers Association report. 

The rise in home equity, though, also contributed to reduced number of foreclosure completions previously, and may prove to be a key factor in determining whether July represents a deviation or the start of a more troubling trend, Attom said. 

"Soaring home prices seem to continue and have spiked the value of homes across the nation, which boosts equity for homeowners at virtually every stage of paying off mortgages. Monitoring these next few months will help us better understand the implications for the real estate sector," Barber said. 

States with the highest rate of foreclosure filings were spread across the country, led by Delaware, which saw a notice for one in every 2,214 properties. Western states where home sales boomed during the pandemic followed, with Nevada coming in at a rate of one in every 2,245 units and Utah at one in 2,289. 

By comparison, the states with the highest rates in June were Illinois, New Jersey and Florida.