Depending on the source, mortgage rates flat or down

Mortgage rates remained flat this week according to Freddie Mac even as other indicators moved in line with the 10-year Treasury yield.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.35% on Sept. 5, 2024, unchanged from last week and down from a year ago when it was 7.12%, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported.

Meanwhile, the 15-year FRM did move 4 basis points lower, to 5.47%, versus last week's average of 5.51%. For the same week in 2023, the 15-year FRM was more than 1 percentage point higher, averaging 6.52%.

The lack of movement was attributed to the markets waiting for the August jobs report due out on Friday morning, said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, in a press release.

"Even though rates have come down over the summer, home sales have been lackluster," Khater commented in a press release. "On the refinance side however, homeowners who bought in recent years are taking advantage of declining mortgage rates in order to lower their monthly payments."

But the latest Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Application Survey data indicated refi activity is stalling over the past three weeks. It only had a 1 basis point week-to-week drop in the rate for the conforming 30-year FRM for the period ended Aug. 30.

"Borrower demand is returning now that rates are at lows last seen in April 2023," MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit said in a Thursday morning statement on the WAS. "With an expected short-term rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month, MBA expects mortgage rates to continue to decrease, albeit at a slow pace."

The 10-year Treasury yield at 11 a.m. Thursday morning was at 3.77%, unchanged from Wednesday's close but down by 10 basis points from the close on Aug. 29.

On both Wednesday and Thursday, for brief periods of time, the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 2-year yield returned to a positive state after being inverted since the start of July 2022 (with another brief exception last month according to some trackers.)

Even though the positive positioning was just for a small amount of time, "it is a sign that things are getting back to normal," investment banker Louis Navellier said in a Wednesday note.

Lender Price product and pricing engine data posted on the National Mortgage News' website put the 30-year FRM at 6.403% as of 11 a.m. Thursday morning, down from 6.47% on week ago.

As of Aug. 28, Optimal Blue's data put the 30-year FRM at 6.303%, rising over the next two days to 6.368% before falling back to 6.292% on Sept. 4, the last day it has information published for.

Zillow's rate tracker also moved lower, to 5.86% for the 30-year FRM at that time, down 2 basis points from Wednesday and 7 basis points from last week's average rate of 5.93%.

"The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation – matched the expectations of investors and forecasters as it continued to move toward the Fed's two-percent inflation target," a Wednesday evening statement from Orphe Divounguy, senior economist from Zillow Home Loans said.

Tomorrow's Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report is likely to be the next economic mover for mortgage rates.

"Further disinflation coupled with a slowdown in economic growth will exert downward pressure on yields," Divounguy said. "With growth in the labor force expected to slow, a stronger-than-expected increase in wages could trigger more mortgage rate volatility and perhaps a small rebound in yields that mortgage rates tend to follow."