Cost-burdened homeowners grow to highest level since 2012

The number of homeowners needing more than 30% of income to pay for housing grew to its largest in 10 years in 2022, with a significant spike also seen among renters, according to new Harvard analysis.

Approximately 19.7 million homeowners in 2022 met the cost-burdened threshold, which the National Association of Realtors and other groups determine to be the point where more than 30% of income is required to meet regular monthly housing payments. The number was up 3.8% from 2021's 19 million and 18% from pre-pandemic 2019 when it came in at 16.7 million, researchers from Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies said. 

A noticeable percentage of the increase was seen among homeowners spending more than 50% of income on housing costs, according to the analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.

"Fully two-thirds of the increase was among homeowners who are severely cost-burdened," which is defined as when more than half of income goes toward payments, noted Peyton Whitney, research assistant at Harvard JCHS. 

The growth of cost-burdened owners increased across all income levels, but was most noticeable among lower earners, particularly seniors. Households with annual income of less than $30,000 saw their cost-burdened rate rise 4.2% from 2019, comprising 72% of all homeowners in the group.

"Fully 62% of the increase in cost-burdened low-income homeowners came from those over age 65, highlighting the dearth of affordable, accessible homes for the growing population of older people," Whitney said.

"Worsening affordability for low-income homeowners was driven by a growing population of older adults on fixed incomes; the share of homeowners over age 65 increased much faster among low-income homeowners than homeowners with higher incomes," she added.

The acceleration in the share of the cost-burdened coincided with the rapid surge in home prices seen in 2021 and 2022, when housing costs reached record levels. Rises in property values would also result in increased tax payments.  

Although increasing shares of homeowners needing more than one-third of income for housing also exists among higher earners, they grew at a slower rate. Among households making $30,000 to $44,999, the portion increased just 2%, and for those earning between $45,000 and $74,999, the number grew 1%. For households with higher incomes above $75,000, the share increased by 0.3%  

Any hint of possible future payment challenges among mortgage holders would catch the attention of servicers, particularly as other signs of consumer distress start to emerge. A recent Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia study found early delinquencies among credit card customers exceeding pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter last year, but current trends continue to show strength in mortgage performance. 

Overall, when combining both homeowners and renters, almost one-third, or approximately 42 million, of all U.S. households would now be considered cost burdened, the highest rate since 2015, Whitney said. The number increased by 1.5 million or 3.8% from 2021, and 4.9 million, which reflects a 13.2% rise, from 2019. Data from 2020 was omitted due to collection issues resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic.  

Among renters, cost-burdened numbers grew to a record of 22.4 million in 2022, up 3.7% from 21.6 million a year earlier. Compared to pre-pandemic 2019, the total was 9.8% higher from 20.4 million. 

But differing from the homeowner segment, numbers increased more among higher earners. The cost-burdened share rose 5.4% to make up 41% of all renting households earning between $45,000 and $74,999.

"Affordability issues increasingly impact these higher income households because renters at this income level are also less likely to qualify for public support," Whitney said. 

While their rate grew by a smaller mark, over four-fifths of renters making below $30,000 per year were cost burdened in 2022.