Climate change escalates flood risk in redlined communities by 25%

As global warming intensifies storms and flooding, formerly redlined neighborhoods are likely to bear the brunt of the risk and billions worth of damage, according to Redfin.

Compounded by years of underdevelopment and underfunding, redlined areas still contain 58.1% Black, Indigenous, People of Color occupants compared to 40.4% in places deemed desirable by lenders. Among 38 of the largest metro areas analyzed, $107 billion worth of redlined housing stock faces high flood risk versus $85 billion worth of greenlined — a 25% difference.

2020’s hurricane season accounted for 29 named storms — the highest on record — and years of segregation perpetuate a cycle of inequality and inequity. Because Black and Hispanic homeowners have less equity built up on average, they’re twice as likely to become delinquent on their mortgages due to storm damage as white borrowers, Redfin said in its report.

"Redlining kept home values in Black neighborhoods depressed, which in turn meant there was less money invested and reinvested in those neighborhoods for decades to come," Redfin senior economist Sheharyar Bokhari said in the report. "As climate change fuels rising sea levels and powerful storms, many of these neighborhoods lack the funding for the infrastructure upgrades necessary to combat flooding."

Broken down by market, Sacramento, Calif., has the highest share of redlined homes in high flood risk areas at 21.6% compared to 11.8% for greenlined. New York followed with 13.8% redlined and 7.1% greenlined, then came Boston’s 13.8% and 8.7%, respectively.

Florida went against the grain, as redlined neighborhoods in Tampa face a 25.9% of high flood risk compared to 47.5% of greenlined neighborhoods. Miami’s high risk fell to 34.2% redlined and 53.9% greenlined while Jacksonville’s were 18% and 36.4%, respectively. Florida stands as an exception due to the more affluent areas being closer to shore and its older population less worried about the long-term impacts of climate change.

Overall, the national spread is 1.5 percentage points between a redlined share of 8.4% versus a greenlined share of 6.9%.