10 states see an annual decline in home prices: CoreLogic

Annual home price growth came in at its slowest in over a decade, with several states posting declines even while monthly housing costs increased, CoreLogic said.

Prices came in 3.1% higher on an annual basis in March, the smallest yearly uptick since spring 2012, according to the property data and analytics provider's latest Home Price Index. Upward movement decelerated from 4.4% a month earlier and a record-high 20.9% a year ago. 

Ten states — primarily in the West — dragged the HPI lower due to decreased values compared to March 2022. A month ago, only seven states saw such declines. But illustrating how regional trends can tug national averages in opposite directions, several cities are now back to recording monthly price growth, according to CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp.

"While housing markets across the country continue to send mixed signals, prices in many large metros appeared to have turned the corner, with the U.S. recording a second month of consecutive monthly gains," she said in a press statement. 

In March, the average price nationwide climbed up 1.6%, twice the reported level between 2015 and 2020, Hepp said. The March rise was also two times higher than February's 0.8% pace, limiting affordability relief.

"The monthly rebound in home prices underscores the lack of inventory in this housing cycle," Hepp added. "In addition, while the lack of affordability generally weighs on home price growth, mobility resulting from remote working conditions appears to be a current driver of home prices in some areas of the country."

Still, many areas that initially saw an influx of new residents arriving to work remotely after the COVID-19 pandemic began  — thereby sending local property values skyward — now seem to be behind slower or negative growth three years later. Buyer demand for more expensive units is diminishing faster than for more affordable homes, pulling down price appreciation in those states as well, CoreLogic said.

Property values in Washington, Idaho and Nevada plunged the most year over year, at 7.4%, 3.6% and 3.5%. Utah and California were not far behind at 3.4% and 3%, respectively. With the exception of New York, nine out of the 10 states posting annual price declines were located in the Mountain West or Pacific regions.

On the other end of the spectrum, Vermont and Indiana exhibited the greatest annual increases in price at 9.9% and 9.2%, respectively. Florida followed at 8.9%. 

A separate study from Redfin also found similar trends among housing markets that previously boomed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Prices for some listed homes in those areas have fallen to such an extent from a year ago that they now offset higher interest rates, meaning buyers are more likely to see lower monthly payments on listed homes than they would have 12 months earlier. 

More than a quarter of properties, or 25.8%, on the market in Austin, Texas, have smaller estimated monthly housing payments than they would have if they had been up for sale at the same time last year, Redfin said. It was followed by two other technology hubs: Seattle at 23.6% and San Francisco at 18.8%. Layoffs and other industry headwinds affecting tech professionals have played a role in reduced housing demand. 

A pullback in home prices has a counteractive effect for aspiring buyers, though, said Chen Zhao, Redfin economics research lead.  

"The decline in home prices is good news for house hunters, but the irony is that it's also limiting their options because it's making a lot of homeowners hesitant to sell. Elevated rates and declining prices are prompting many sellers to stay put, which is fueling a housing shortage that's keeping prices from falling further." she said. 

At the same time, a range of financial concerns, including higher mortgage rates, inflation and a possible recession, are likely to influence potential buyers as well, CoreLogic said. Hesitancy among consumers from current economic concerns led the company to predict further slowing in home price growth this spring and early summer, before a turnaround in the second half of 2023. By March 2024, CoreLogic forecasts annual home price growth to come in at 4.6%.

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