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What banks need to know about the tariffs: Live coverage

The tariff regime unveiled last week by President Donald Trump has injected a significant dose of uncertainty into the banking industry and unleashed the specter of an economic slowdown.

While banks and credit unions aren't directly affected by the levies being imposed on about 90 countries, bank shares have been pummeled and financial companies are bracing for a global trade war.

Trump's plan was to impose a minimum 10% tariff on goods and services from all U.S. trading partners, with higher rates for nations such as China, Vietnam and Taiwan. In an executive order detailing the plan, the president argued that "large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits have led to the hollowing out" of the nation's manufacturing base and "inhibited [the country's] ability to scale advanced domestic manufacturing capacity," which has "undermined critical supply chains and rendered [the country's] defense-industrial base dependent on foreign adversaries." 

On Wednesday, Trump posted on social media that he would pause the tariffs for most countries for 90 days. He singled out China for an increase, raising the tariff to 125%. "At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable," the president said in the post.

The post sparked a rally in the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

12 Posts
3d ago

IBM stocks rise in response to Trump's tariff pause

IBM logo
Bloomberg
International Business Machines shares ended 6.4% higher in the wake of Trump's announcement via Truth Social that most of the tariffs that went into effect today would be lowered and/or paused for 90 days.

"On tariffs overall, IBM expects no impact on product availability," a company spokesperson told American Banker. "With supply chain costs continuing to fluctuate, the associated costs of manufacturing and delivering IBM's hardware products are reflected in our current pricing. IBM continues to honor outstanding prices and terms in existing contracts."

IBM partners with 90 of the world's largest banks, including Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and HSBC. Banks and financial services companies make up 7% of IBM's clients as of the end of 2024, according to Data Captive.
3d ago

For M&A, tariff turmoil's impact likely to depend on bank size

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For larger banks, the stock volatility caused by the tariff roller coaster may put M&A deals on pause. But for smaller lenders, some say it's having the opposite effect.

Mike Bell, a lawyer at the Michigan firm Honigan, advises credit unions on acquisitions of small to mid-size community banks. Over the last week, he said, he's gotten more calls from banks looking to sell than ever before.

"Economic tumult, whether it affects you or not, is a little bit of a nudge," Bell said.

The reason, he theorized, is that while large banks have much to lose from seeing their stock value plummet, smaller lenders tend to be only lightly traded or not traded at all. Added to that, the kinds of families and institutional investors who own small banks may already be leaning toward selling.

"You want your equity event, you want to retire, you want to get something out of something you've held for years and years," Bell said. "This [tariff news] reminds you that that might be a wise decision."
3d ago

A new stablecoin in an unstable world

KONSKIE, POLAND - SEPTEMBER 29, 2018: Tether cryptocurrency logo
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Tether, the market's largest stablecoin issuer, is planning a new stablecoin designed for institutional clients, particularly parties looking to speed settlement between banks.

"There's been a lot of speculation around how new tariffs might impact global payments. In times of uncertainty, people often turn to stable, dollar-linked options — and USDt is frequently one of the first tools they reach for," a Tether spokesperson told American Banker in an email.

"We're not rooting for instability. If more people adopt USDt due to macroeconomic stress, it's a sign that something isn't working elsewhere, not something we celebrate."

The stock market and cryptocurrencies rallied after President Donald Trump said on a social media platform that he was pausing the tariff regime for 90 days for most countries. He raised the tariff on China to 125%, he said in the post.
3d ago

Tariff twist boosts mortgage stocks; interest rates still high

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President Donald Trump's decision to pause most tariffs while raising China's levies gave mortgage and housing stocks a temporary boost.

Housing-sector stocks had been the least affected by the initial tariff announcement, as the market anticipated the turmoil would drive down mortgage rates. Buyers turned to Treasurys during the stock selloff, but that rally didn't last. After Trump's announcement Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield, used to price mortgages, was at 4.37%, down from its intraday high of 4.47% but still elevated.

"Spreads in Treasury and mortgage markets are ugly," analyst Chris Whalen said in a post-announcement message on X (formerly Twitter).

Zillow's rate tracker has the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 6.99% midday on Wednesday, up 6 basis points on the day and 27 basis points from last week's average of 6.72%. Lender Price data on the National Mortgage News website had that product over 7%.

On Wednesday, Rocket, UWM and LoanDepot each saw a sharp increase in stock price within the hour after the tariff pause announcement was made, but largely started trending back down again after 2 p.m.
3d ago

Lending demand could fall given uncertainty, Citizens says

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Bloomberg
As banks look ahead, the questions surrounding tariffs and the economy could be pressing as companies decide whether to borrow money.

"Geopolitical risks have created uncertainty for small businesses, making strategic planning difficult," wrote Manny Tocco, chief operating officer, business banking at Citizens Financial.

"These uncertainties will soften credit demand in the near and medium term. For companies that are seeking debt capital, proactive communication to the lender around import dependencies in addition to margin and revenue outlook are focus areas for banks."
3d ago

BlackRock's Fink: Most CEOs would say we're 'in a recession right now'

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Bloomberg
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said the turbulence of the current market could lead to another 20% drop.

Fink, who heads the largest asset manager globally, told the Economic Club of New York on Monday that most CEOs he's spoken to "would say we are probably in a recession right now."

"I see it more as a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity, but that doesn't mean we can't go down further," Fink said. "That doesn't mean we can't fall another 20% from here too."

On Tuesday, BlackRock said it was partnering with Anchorage Digital on crypto. BlackRock, which has $11 trillion in assets, will enter a new master custody service agreement with Anchorage Digital, the only U.S. federally chartered digital asset bank.
3d ago

Crypto companies expect to benefit from tariff-inspired turmoil

BankThink: A U.S.-dollar-pegged stablecoin would supercharge banking and payments
Adobe Stock
Digital asset companies are expecting investors to migrate to bitcoin and stablecoins amid the market turmoil brought on by President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

"It's little surprise that digital asset investors have sought a safe haven in the choppy seas of the digital asset markets, at a time when volatility has reached every asset class," said Arnoud Star Busman, CEO at Quantoz Payments, a Netherlands-based stablecoin firm that recently launched stablecoins EURQ and USDQ with support from Tether and Kraken.

"In crypto, one can convert speculative assets into safer denominations at lightning speed, and we have seen that in our own USDQ and EURQ stablecoins, where trading volumes have increased fourfold [from] a month ago, now up to $1.4 million a day. While there was already a trend towards stablecoin use, the volatility has turbocharged that use and allowed retail and institutional investors to avoid the feeling of helplessness as they see their more illiquid assets get downgraded."

Bitcoin was recently up 6.9% after Trump announced in a social media post that he was pausing the tariffs for every nation except China. The president raised the tariff on Chinese imports to 125%, according to the post.
3d ago

Trump posts that he's pausing tariffs for 90 days on non-retaliatory countries

President Trump Signs Executive Order On American Energy
Bloomberg
President Trump authorized a 90-day pause on tariffs Wednesday afternoon and lowered the reciprocal tariff during the period to 10%, according to a post on Truth Social.

Seventy-five countries are affected, according to the post. "Based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE … effective immediately," Trump said in the post.

In the same post, Trump raised Chinese tariffs to 125%, citing a "lack of respect that China has shown to the World's Markets. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable," he posted.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up 6.3% and the KBW Bank Index climbed 6.9%.
3d ago

What financial advisors know about surviving past market crises

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For advisors who have been in the business for some time — and lived through events like the dot-com boom and bust of the late 1990s, the early 2000s recession, the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 COVID-19 shutdown — much about recent events feels familiar.

Read what advice wealth managers have for clients and peers in Rob Burgess' article for American Banker's sister publication Financial Planning.
3d ago

Bank stocks may not have further to fall

Stock Market
Bloomberg
Financial institutions have been battered on Wall Street as investors price in their bear cases for Trump's trade policies. But after markets have sold off bank stocks with disaster scenarios in mind in recent weeks, those share prices may be near their ultimate lows, said Tom Michaud, CEO of Keefe, Bruyette and Woods, on a Wednesday webinar.

"We believe a lot of the potential bad news is already in the stocks," Michaud said. "Investor sentiment has changed so dramatically. It's gone from, what was immediately after the election, almost a blue sky-type scenario, to now, a late-cycle valuation scenario. Now we're not all the way there, but we're the majority of the way there."

The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, a benchmark for the banking sector, is down nearly 20% year-to-date.
3d ago

Morgan Stanley adjusts economic forecast in response to tariffs

Morgan Stanley
Bloomberg
Morgan Stanley economists estimate that tariffs will introduce higher inflation risk in the near term and could drive a surge in headline inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, according to a report the bank posted Wednesday.

Consumer prices for various goods are estimated to increase on average by 1.5% in the first year after enactment. The economists have also revised their growth forecast, reducing gross domestic product expectations from 1.5% to 0.8% at year-end.

"Tariff news and policymaking has been swift and dynamic and we expect it to evolve," the economists, led by investment strategist Monica Guerra, wrote in their report. "Notable policy changes are likely to drive investor uncertainty and market volatility could increase if tariffs are sustained and/or if there is a significant retaliation from U.S. trade partners.

"The deterioration of economic data could present another critical factor influencing the long-term outcome for the Trump tariff agenda. While the Trump administration may have numerous intentions for implementing a restrictive tariff policy, the mercurial nature of these policies could result in positive or negative economic and market forces."
3d ago

Bank CEOs likely to focus on outlook during earnings calls

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The biggest banks will begin reporting earnings on Friday, but those numbers are already out of date since last week's tariff announcement and the subsequent retaliatory moves by other countries.

"While reported Q1 loan growth may still show some resilience compared to worst fears, we anticipate management commentary pointing to decelerating commercial pipelines due to trade uncertainty," wrote Laurent Birade, Moody's banking industry practice lead. "The key risk remains whether this translates into higher credit provisions later this year, even if Q1 provisioning levels appear relatively contained for now."

Birade's co-lead, Chris Stanley, wrote that what he dubbed the "tariff tantrum" probably won't cause banks to change their credit loss reserves in a major way. "Bankers need to use Q1 earnings to emphasize changes in the outlook and evidence of strategic action: resolution of CRE issues, enhancement of their playbook for multiple economic scenarios, and emphasis on properly pricing risk in new growth," Stanley wrote. "Hoping for Fed rate cuts is not a strategy."