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Election 2024
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Election 2024: Live coverage

ByEditorial Staff
November 5, 2024 3:09 PM
Harris-Trump
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump
Bloomberg News

Across the nation, Americans are casting their ballots for what may be one of our country's most important elections. 

The campaign season has already been filled with twists and dramatic moments — from President Joe Biden's abrupt departure from the race, passing the baton to Vice President Kamala Harris, to a bullet fired at former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. 

This is the driving moment that will determine the direction of both the economy and the way that Washington interacts with the financial industry for the next four years — and beyond. 

American Banker has chronicled a number of important strains in this election for bankers, including the rising tide of populism among both the Republican and Democratic parties, and the ways in which that has impacted financial policy. We've looked at the growing influence of cryptocurrency interests in bank regulation, and the ways in which the industry is increasingly seeking to influence the outcome of key political races. We've turned the scope back to bankers, digging into how key players in the industry view prospects in Washington, and how institutions are meeting the specific financial needs of the times. 

We'll kick off a live blog today and continue to cover the election in a way that's tailored to bankers' interests and concerns. 

Claire Williams, Polo Rocha, Kyle Campbell, Catherine Leffert, Ebrima Santos Sanneh, Kevin Wack and Carter Pape will update you on key races, report insights into what the outcomes of elections up and down the ballot will mean for you and give you color on the forces shaping this high-profile moment in U.S. politics. 

After today, we'll return to our regular coverage formats and keep you informed of all results (however long they take). 

Let's get going!

15 Posts
7m ago

Would community banks get a ‘Trump bump’ if he wins again? Maybe, First Bank CEO says

By Claire Williams
About Claire
byclairew
Patrick Ryan is CEO of First Bank in Hamilton, N.J.
Community banks saw what some called a "Trump bump" after the 2016 election, said Patrick Ryan, CEO of First Bank in New Jersey. 

"The idea was that taxes were going to go down and banks were going to make more money, and probably as important, the regulatory environment might ease a little bit," he said. "There's some that are theorizing that it might have a similar impact this time around, but that's a little hard to say." 

Still, there is "a reason to believe" that bank stocks and banks would marginally outperform under another Trump administration, compared to a Harris one, he said. 

Ryan, also chair of the New Jersey Bankers Association, said that his trade group has been more involved this election cycle. 

"We've made it a strategic priority to just become more visible and get more involved and have more conversations." 

"I think individual banks are trying to play nice with everybody and not take sides and work well with whatever administration wins," he added. 
38m ago

Race to Watch: Iowa's 3rd Congressional district

By Ebrima Santos Sanneh
About Ebrima Santos
EbrimaSSanneh
ebrima.sanneh@arizent.com
ebrima-santos-sanneh-2734b3146
Rep. Zach Nunn
Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa
Bloomberg News
The race for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District is pivotal, featuring incumbent Republican Zach Nunn and Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam, both military veterans. 

Nunn, who narrowly won the seat in 2023, has garnered strong support from the banking sector, receiving endorsements from the American Bankers Association and Iowa Bankers Association. These organizations praise his pro-business stance, particularly his support for the ACRE Act, which aims to assist rural lenders by excluding from gross income any interest earned on loans secured by farm real estate, aquaculture facilities, and certain rural home mortgages. 

Pollsters have classified the race for the district — which stretches from Des Moines to Iowa's southern border — as a "toss-up," and significant outside funding has flowed into the race. The results of this closely watched contest could significantly influence the GOP's narrow majority in the House.

Read the full story here.
55m ago

Race to Watch: Ohio Senate

By Claire Williams
About Claire
byclairew
Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio
Senate Banking Committee chair Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio
Bloomberg News
Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and one of the more stalwart progressive Democratic lawmakers on banking issues, is locked in a tight race with Republican challenger Bernie Moreno for re-election. Polls opened in the state at 6:30 a.m. and will close at 7:30 p.m. We'll likely know the results of Ohio's races before other battleground states, because officials are allowed to get a head start on processing early and absentee ballots. 

The race is one of the toughest of Brown's career. He successfully defeated Republicans in the now firmly Trump-held state in his last elections, but finds himself virtually tied with Moreno, according to the most recent polling from the state, conducted by Emerson College polling. Brown led the Senate Banking Committee through the Silicon Valley Bank regional bank crisis last year, and ushered legislation through the committee after that crisis to make it easier to claw back the compensation of failed bank executives. 

He referenced some of his work as a standard bearer of progressive populism on financial issues in one of his last campaigning moves of the 2024 season: An op-ed published at Fox News. 

"Ohioans know I'll always fight for them, and side with workers over Wall Street, with patients over drug companies, with Ohio families over the corporations raising their prices," he said. 

American Banker dove deep into the Ohio Senate race and what it means for banks and finance in a Bankshot podcast episode: Red as Rust — Sherrod Brown's battle for Ohio's populist vote. 
1h 9m ago

Uncertainty looms for banks regardless of election outcome

By John Heltman
About John
JohnHeltman
john.heltman@arizent.com
john-heltman-84b6b4a
Harris Trump signs
Bloomberg News
The banking industry has generally favored former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election due to his anti-regulatory stance toward banks and industry in general, while the expectation among bankers has been that Vice President Kamala Harris would continue the regulatory agenda that began under President Biden.

But whatever Harris' regulatory agenda ultimately is, it will likely be pursued through regular order and by regulatory agencies whose rules and norms are well understood by banks. Trump, by contrast, has made reforming the administrative state a centerpiece of his campaign, with the stated goal being to reform the civil service in such a way that more career civil servants — who have traditionally served regardless of which party is in power — excusable at will. That could have unpredictable implications for the banking industry.

Read the full opinion article here.
1h 37m ago

Pro-crypto California Democrat positioned to win Senate seat

By Carter Pape
About Carter
carter.pape@arizent.com
carter-pape
Adam Schiff of California
Representative Adam Schiff, a Democrat from California, is running for Senate.
Al Drago/Bloomberg
No matter which metric you use — polling, betting markets, or the consensus of election pundits — Adam Schiff, a House Democrat currently representing a congressional district just outside of Los Angeles, appears positioned to win the open Senate seat in the Golden State.

Schiff is generally regarded as pro-cryptocurrency, having received an A rating from cryptocurrency advocacy group Stand With Crypto. This year, he voted in favor of a bill to set up a regulatory regime for cryptocurrency. The bill, known as FIT21, received broad bipartisan support in the House.

But, unlike four other senators who have received an A rating from Stand With Crypto, he has not received the group's endorsement. His campaign also has not received any direct funding from pro-crypto political action committee (PAC) Fairshake. That's according to OpenSecrets, a nonprofit that analyzes campaign finance data.

However, Fairshake did run advertisements in the primary election against Schiff's Democratic opponent, crypto skeptic Katie Porter. In the deeply blue state of California, this ad spending likely went further to determine the outcome of the general election than ad spending in the general election itself would have, since Schiff is now running against a Republican, Steve Garvey.

Also of note: Laphonza Butler, who currently holds the seat for which Garvey and Schiff are competing, enjoys a seat on the Senate Banking Committee. Butler is not running for re-election, so that seat will be up for grabs in the new Congress.
1h 53m ago

Jamie Dimon asks Americans to 'find common ground'

By Catherine Leffert
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase
JPMorgan Chase President and CEO Jamie Dimon
Bloomberg News
JPMorganChase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon called for unity on Election Day. The longtime leader of America's biggest bank said in a prepared statement Tuesday that people need to come together behind whoever is elected president in what has been "one of the hardest fought and at times divisive elections in our recent history."

"We must begin the work of bringing our nation together and focusing on the pressing economic and global issues before us," Dimon said.

The executive of the $4 trillion-asset bank has stopped short of endorsing a specific candidate, though he has spoken out against regulatory policies throughout the years. The New York Times reported that Dimon has voiced support for Vice President Kamala Harris in private. 

"This is a time that requires all of us to find common ground and most importantly, a time to

respect and uphold our democratic process," Dimon said in his Tuesday statement. "Our country is the envy of the world and if we can work together, we will ensure that it stays that way for generations to come."
2h 8m ago

Race to watch: Wisconsin Senate

By Catherine Leffert
Eric Hovde
Republican Senate candidate for Wisconsin Eric Hovde
Bloomberg News
Eric Hovde could be the only senator to own a bank, if the tight race against two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin D-Wis. goes his way tonight.

But it may take until well after 8 p.m. Tuesday, when polls close, until unofficial results are announced, Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator Meagan Wolfe said at a Monday news conference.

Hovde, chairman and CEO of Sunwest Bank in Utah, was within two percentage points of Baldwin's lead in the days leading up to Election Day, according to polls, but the fight has been competitive as Wisconsin remains a crucial state in determining whether Republicans or Democrats will control the senate. 

If Hovde prevails, it could mean a seat on the Senate Banking committee, breaking from the usual for the Badger State. But it's not entirely clear what would then happen with his $3 billion-asset financial institution, which has operations across the West and in Florida.

Last month, Hovde said In an interview with American Banker that he would step back from the day-to-day work of running Sunwest, but likely wouldn't sell his stake in the bank. , which the Democratic Party in Wisconsin has pointed to as a conflict of interest.

Hovde has highlighted his banking experience as an advantage, if he were elected.

"I've spent most of my career around the banking industry, turning around dozens of banks," he said in the October interview. "I've seen over 30 years the amount of resources, the amount of people and time just to comply with regulations, it's gone up exponentially." 
2h 37m ago

How the election could impact interchange fees

By Mary de Wet
Credit card
Bloomberg News
Trump and Harris have been notably quiet on a number of key banking issues, but advocates predict that the track records and allies of both candidates will create a tougher regulatory environment for the payments landscape in the coming years.

Interchange fees, which are incurred between the consumer and merchant banks to account for the cost of processing card payments, have been a hotly debated topic among regulators and the Supreme Court for the last few years.

Even with the proposal this year by Visa and Mastercard to reduce and limit credit card interchange rates as part of a settlement, which was rejected by merchants as insufficient, the charges are still being widely debated in Congress and on a state level.

"I think the payment industry is going to have to steel itself for a challenging four years no matter who wins," Eric Grover, a principal at Intrepid Ventures, said in an interview with American Banker's John Adams.

Read the full article here.
2h 58m ago

Race to Watch: California's 47th Congressional district

By Kevin Wack
About Kevin
kevinwack
kevin-wack-1b60b712
Katie Porter
Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif.
Bloomberg News
Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., who has served in Congress since 2018 and has been a vocal critic of the banking industry and advocate for consumers, is not running for re-election after her failed bid for the Democratic primary for the state's U.S. Senate seat. Running to replace her are her erstwhile Republican opponent Scott Baugh and Democratic law professor David Min, whose progressive policy stances are similar to Porter's.

Read the full story here.

3h 33m ago

How campaign promises could impact monetary policy

By Kyle Campbell
About Kyle
ByKyleCampbell
federal-reserve-bank
Bloomberg News
Both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have promised to make big changes to the country's fiscal policy, including changes to the tax code, tariffs and federal spending. Those changes could change the Federal Reserve's trajectory for monetary policy, since the central bank is increasingly vigilant about stamping out inflation.

Read the full story here.
4h 2m ago

Bank stocks rise along with markets as investors await election results

By Polo Rocha
About Polo
polorocha18
polo-rocha-5514a844
Wall Street bull statue
Bloomberg News
Banks were performing in line with the broader market on Tuesday, with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index rising 1%. The index has surged 25% this year, as the Federal Reserve has started to cut interest rates and worries over a looming recession have eased.

Investors are "waking up to the fact that it's not Armageddon," said Kevin Gordon, a top investment strategist at Charles Schwab, adding that the sharp downturn where banks "tend to get smacked the hardest" seems unlikely soon. Banks did report some worsening in their loan portfolios last quarter, but their balance sheets remain "relatively solid" overall, Gordon said.

Read more about how bank stocks are reacting to election news and today's economic indicators.
4h 22m ago

These are some of the biggest bank donors this election cycle 

By Claire Williams
About Claire
byclairew

While crypto dominated most political spending this election cycle, a number of bankers made hefty bets on different campaigns and groups. 

Jim Walton, a member of one of the wealthiest families in America and the Arvest Bank chairman, gave $5 million to Americans for Prosperity Action on two occasions. The group, which is affiliated with the Koch brothers, supports conservative and libertarian candidates. 

Walton's other large donations also includes $2 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which aims to build a Republican majority in the upper chamber.

A surprise major donor this cycle includes Walter Schlaepfer, who's registered as an investment adviser and broker with JPMorgan Securities LLC. He gave $1 million to former President Donald Trump's Super PAC Make America Great Again on May 31, the same day Trump was convicted of 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election. 

Wences Casares also dropped a few large contributions during this election cycle. Casares is the founder and CEO of Xapo Bank, a small crypto bank headquartered in Gibraltar that doesn't operate in the United States. He gave $250,000 to Fairshake, the crypto Super PAC that's largely supported Republican candidates, but who's donated across the aisle to a few crypto-friendly Democrats as well. Casares also gave $100,000 to American Values 2024, a Robert Kennedy Jr. group. 

Robert Marling, the former CEO of Texas-based Woodforest National Bank, which has a heavy presence in Walmart stores, continued to donate heavily to Republican groups. Among his largest donations, he gave $250,000 to the Trump Super PAC Make America Great Again Action and Club for Growth, a conservative group. Denny Sanford, who owns First Premier Bank in South Dakota, also gave to conservative causes, including Make America Great Again.

4h 43m ago

CFPB's Chopra could get second term in Harris adminsitration

By Mary de Wet
Rohit Chopra
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Rohit Chopra
Bloomberg News
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, she may extend Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra's leadership when his term ends in September 2026. Chopra has plenty of items still on his plate, including additional rulemakings related to open banking, likely focused on mortgages, cracking down on big bank overdraft fees, banning the use of medical debt, and addressing mortgage closing costs. If he chooses to leave, potential candidates to succeed him include former California Rep. Katie Porter and CFPB general counsel Seth Frotman.

Read the full article here.
4h 44m ago

Bank group urges bankers to make friends across political spectrum

By Kyle Campbell
About Kyle
ByKyleCampbell
Regardless of electoral outcomes, governing margins are expected to be narrow in the next Congress. Because of this, industry groups are urging bankers not to limit their support along party lines.

According to the Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan policy analytics firm, Republicans are projected to take control of the Senate next year by flipping at least two seats currently occupied by Democrats. The open race in West Virginia is strongly in their favor and Sen. John Tester, D-Mont., is rated a slight underdog to his challenger Tim Sheehy. Four other Democrat-occupied seats are listed as toss-ups. 

With control of the White House and House of Representatives effectively a coin-toss, Republicans have the better chance of single-party control. But even if they secure power on all three fronts, their margins for legislative success will remain thin, with the filibuster-proof 60-vote majority out of reach in the Senate and a fractious conference in the House that will be hard to corral on certain issues. 

In light of this, Kirsten Sutton, the American Bankers Association's top lobbyist, encouraged bankers across the country at an industry conference last week to build alliances wherever possible, even with politicians whose non-banking policy opinions differ from their own.

"We just encourage you to remember, don't neglect the people that we may not like or may not agree with," Sutton told attendees at the ABA's annual conference in October. "We can't afford to do that in this environment. We don't even have to be friends, just identifying that shared value so that we can push forward and get some wins."

BankPac, the ABA's political action committee, raised and distributed more than $3.4 million to candidates and other committees between January 1, 2023 and October 16, 2024, according to Federal Elections Commission data. 

Roughly $1.4 million of that spending went to Republican candidates while more than $750,000 to support Democrats, according to the campaign finance watchdog group OpenSecrets, with the balance going to other political action groups. 

"I, through the BankPac, give money to members of Congress that I don't agree with," said ABA Chief Policy Officer Naomi Camper during last month's conference. "But those members who we support through BankPac support the banking industry and share our banking values."

7h 51m ago

Bankers favor Trump for regulatory relief

By Frank Gargano
About Frank
frankgargano1
frank.gargano@arizent.com
fgargano

This election cycle has been more of a guessing game than those in the past, as both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have sparingly offered glimpses into their policy priorities.

"What's unique and challenging about this election is that both candidates are unclear as to what they'll do," Aaron Klein, a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, said in an interview with American Banker's Claire Williams.  

Despite this, data gathered in a recent survey by Arizent, the publisher of American Banker, found that roughly half of all respondents from banks with $100 billion of assets or more felt that Trump winning a second term would be best for the industry solely from a regulatory and policy perspective.

This sentiment held true across the rest of those surveyed. Sixty-nine percent of those who work at banks with between $10 billion and $100 billion of assets, 76% from community banks with less than $10 billion of assets and 60% at credit unions of all asset classes all followed suit in saying Trump is the better choice.

In addition to recent statements pursuing a temporary cap of 10% on credit card interest rates and establish a sovereign wealth fund to provide backing for infrastructure projects, Trump has touted a more aggressive stance on rolling back regulations and is bullish on the opportunities created by cryptocurrencies.

"Instead of attacking industries of the future, we will embrace them, including making America the world capital for crypto and bitcoin," Trump said in a speech during an Economic Club of New York event in September.

See more survey results on our Election page.
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