How Fed rate cut could improve housing affordability for buyers

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Mortgage applications were up to their highest point in more than two years following the Federal Reserve's 50-basis-point rate cut on Sept. 18, as the Mortgage Bankers Association's Market Composite Index rose 11% from the week ending Sept. 13. But with the first interest rate drop in roughly four years, what does this market volatility mean for housing affordability?

Rates were declining towards the 6% benchmark in advance of the Federal Open Market Committee's decision this month. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.09% on Sept. 19, down 11 basis points from the prior week; it dropped another basis point on Thursday according to data from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

"Long-term mortgage rates will fall if economic data indicates a weakening economy," Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage, said to National Mortgage News' Brad Finkelstein. "Employment numbers will be key."

Read more: Why mortgage rates might rise after Fed cut

While applications were up, home sales were more mixed.

Data from the National Association of Realtors found that sales of existing homes in the U.S. were down 2.5% from the month prior, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.86 million. This figure was 4.2% lower year over year.  

New home construction was up, however, as optimism among builders rose before the FOMC meeting. Recent statistics for August released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development found that privately owned housing starts were at a 1.36 million annual rate adjusted seasonally, up 9.6% from the month prior.

Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, told National Mortgage News that even with the growing for-sale inventory, high housing prices and mortgage rates are constricting demand.

Read more: Slowing price growth might not move home sales

"Sluggish demand combined with increasing supply is a recipe for cooling home price appreciation," Fleming said. 

Read on to learn more about which cities are the most opportune for buyers at different points in their lives and how the elevated interest rate environment has impacted their housing markets.

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Which cities hold the most promise for retiring boomers?

Affordable housing opportunities and lower tax rates are two key factors influencing where members of the baby boomer generation are choosing to live after retirement.

Realtor.com recently ranked the most popular cities for boomers to live, with ten of the top 11 located in the southern part of the U.S. Provo, Utah, and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, tied for the tenth spot with a 15% change in the number of people 65 years and older moving to the location between 2003 and 2020.

Other states featured include North Carolina, Idaho and South Carolina.

In the top city, between 2003 and 2020, there was a 23.1% increase in that same statistic.

Read more: Most popular cities for boomers to live
Miami
Miami, Florida.
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The most attractive cities for Gen X homebuyers?

Data has shown that despite market fluctuations, members of Generation X account for a sizable portion of homebuyers in the current landscape.

In its recent ranking of the most popular cities for Gen X to move to, LendingTree looked at mortgage offers given to consumers in the top 50 metropolitan regions in the U.S. last year. Roughly 21.25% of offers through the firm's platform were given to Gen X applicants.

In Miami, Las Vegas, and Riverside, California, Gen Xers made up the largest share of potential homebuyers. The average age among potential Gen X homebuyers in the top three cities is 50.

Read more: 20 most popular cities for Gen X homebuyers
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The cities impacted most by inflation

Since before the Federal Reserve's 50-basis-point rate cut this month, the elevated interest rate environment in place since the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted property volumes and new home construction — bolstering home prices.

WalletHub set out to measure this impact by comparing 23 major Metropolitan Statistical Areas against rising housing prices and natural-gas prices tied to the Consumer Price Index, scoring each area out of 100.

"Rising housing and natural gas prices accounted for 70% of the 3.4% increase in the latest monthly CPI report," David Skidmore, professor of political science at Drake University, said in a WalletHub release. "Older homeowners who have mortgages locked in at low fixed rates are staying put, with the result that fewer homes are available for younger homebuyers to enter the market."

Read more: 20 cities with the biggest inflation problems
Suburban NYC Housing Frenzy Slows With Buyers Showing Fatigue
Stephanie Keith/Bloomberg

Top 20 states with the highest property taxes

Property tax rates vary significantly across the country, and with a 2.06% swing between the highest and the lowest effective real-estate tax rates, where you live can mean an appreciable difference in the amount of property tax you will pay.

The top five states in WalletHub's ranking have an average effective real-estate tax rate of 2.02%. The average annual tax rate in these states on a $281,900 home — the median home value in the country as of 2022, the year of the most recent available data — is $5,705.

Read more: 20 states with the highest property taxes
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Michael Flippo - stock.adobe.com

Which 20 metropolitan areas are seeing a home construction boom?

Housing affordability has been a persistent concern for buyers and builders alike throughout the last few years due to elevated mortgage rates, but that could change soon after rates have been trending downward in recent weeks.

Construction Coverage ranks large metros that are seeing a jump in home construction, examining the period from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023. The list is determined by measuring the change in value of new residential housing units authorized by permit-issuing places.

Read more: 20 large metros where home construction is growing the fastest
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