Even before the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, the number of single-family homes on the market in Santa Fe County, N.M., was the lowest it's been since officials began keeping such data in 2005.
The record-low inventory of 358 homes for sale in Santa Fe County during the first quarter of 2020 was reinforced by record-low new listings in the fourth quarter of 2019 and first quarter of 2020 — at 334 and 396, respectively — according to statistics from the Santa Fe Association of Realtors.
In peak real estate times, Santa Fe County had more than 2,000 homes on the market in 2008 and 1,000 new listings in one quarter in 2007. Generally, the inventory of homes for sale was more than 600 each quarter over the past three years, but the inventory has dropped every quarter since the second quarter of 2019.
"They are going down and down because more people are buying and sellers are more resistant to list," said association President Susan Orth. "[Buyers] are looking for something to buy and not finding anything. Sellers are looking for prices to go up even more."
Home construction in recent years has not kept up with buyer demand, said Donna Reynolds, the association's government affairs director.
"We have such a high demand for homes and we have not built that much housing," Reynolds said. "We are getting down to whatever is left."
Add those issues to new ones presented by the novel coronavirus, which causes COVID-19. Sellers are withdrawing homes from the market and putting off listing their homes. And though interest rates have fallen and agents are moving toward electronic means of showing a home, Orth said the lack of a deep inventory remains problematic.
"If they want to buy a house, they have to buy what is available," she said. "You can't be too particular in what you get."
The first-quarter median home price across the county was $458,941, barely $1,000 shy of the all-time high of $460,000 in the fourth quarter of 2018.
The COVID-19 crisis is a potent wild card that does not lend itself to reliable predictions across the board. Orth was only willing to say real estate "is likely to see some market changes in these unprecedented times."
"Pent-up demand will go up pretty quick when it is safe," said Orth, owner of City Different Realty.
The southwest section of the city, which sees the most home sales, reached a record-high $325,000 median price after starting 2019 at $287,000. But the county's most "affordable" area hovered at $324,000, $305,000 and $315,000 in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2019, according to SFAR statistics.
First-quarter home sales in the southwest section increased 13.4% in 2020 compared to 2019. Across the city of Santa Fe, the median home price rose 8.9% to $387,250 with a 10.2% increase in closed sales.
In the remainder of Santa Fe County, the first-quarter median price rose 10.4% from 2019 to $585,000.
The median sales prices consider only sales listed on the Santa Fe Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, which does not include all sales.
