COVID-19 continues to upend the Massachusetts residential real estate market as sales of both single-family homes and condos have crashed roughly 23% and 30%, respectively, this June compared with last, according to sales data from The Warren Group.
But median sale prices set records for homes while decreasing for condos for the first time in 14 months.
Worcester County was not immune.
Single-family home sales decreased roughly 22% while condo sales decreased roughly 15% this June compared with last in the county; and median sale prices remained flat for single-family homes and up roughly 9% for condos.
Nor was the city of Worcester immune.
Single-family homes were down 40% while condo sales remained basically flat this June compared to last; and median sale prices for single-family homes and condos both increased 8%.
In sum, the data released Wednesday by The Warren Group defy a common narrative for the state, county and city aside from that the number of sales have crashed, and The Warren Group CEO Tim Warren said that a more clear picture may emerge in the next quarter.
"There's a lot of talk but little data or proof as to whether (COVID presents) a real change or speculation," Warren said in an interview Tuesday. The 'new normal' — we haven't discovered what it really is ... We need until the end of third quarter to see what the data really means."
The data show 5,004 single-family home sales in Massachusetts in June, a 23% decrease from June 2019 when there were 6,530 transactions. This marked the fewest number of single-family home sales in June since 2011, when 4,471 transactions were recorded, according to The Warren Group.
So far this year, there have been 22,662 single-family home sales — a 13% decrease from the first six months of 2019 that saw 26,257 sales.
But median sale prices for single-family homes increased 2.6% on a year-to-year basis, rising from $429,000 in June 2019 to $440,000 last month — an all-time monthly high. And on a year-to-date basis, the median sale price has risen 5.1% compared to the first six months of last year to $415,000.
"It's showing that the second quarter was something of a crash in the number of home sales of single-family homes, marking three months in a row of declining sales," Warren said. "People have been either reluctant to purchase a home because of the uncertainty of the pandemic, or postponing their search because of limited inventory ... but there's not a crash in prices."
Condominium sales in the state decreased nearly 31% this June compared to last, with 2,620 sales in June 2019 compared to 1,815 sales this June. Year-to-date, there have been 9,463 condo sales, representing a 16.7% decrease from the first six months of 2019, which saw 11,356 condo sales.
Pricing data were mixed. The median condo sale price fell nearly 6% on a year-over-year basis to $396,000, down from $420,000 in June 2019. But the median sale price on a year-to-date basis increased 7.9% from $380,000 to $410,000.
Worcester County generally reflects the state in the number of sales of single-family homes in June, with 727 sales last month compared to 927 sales in June 2019: a nearly 22% decrease. Year-to-date sales are also down: from 3,750 by this time last year to 3,407 now, a decrease of 9%.
But contrary to state data, the median sale price did not change from last June to this June, as both were at $315,000. However, year-to-date median sale prices in the county were up 7.5%, from $280,000 to $301,000.
Condos in Worcester County did a bit better than single-family homes in the county, albeit sales numbers were still down 15% this June compared to last - from 195 sales to 166 sales — and down 4.2% — 879 to 842 - year-to-date.
And median sale prices increased nearly 9% from $222,222 to $241,850 this June compared to last, while the year-to-date median sale price was up nearly 10% from $215,000 to $236,000.
June was a bad month for single-family home sales in the city. Single-family home sales plummeted nearly twice as much in the city as in the state this June - with a 40% decrease in sales: from 141 last June to 84 this June. Year-to-date numbers weren't as bad but were still down 16.5% this year compared to last, with 577 sales recorded last year by this time and 482 sales recorded this year.
"I think the Worcester numbers are a reflection of just a recession and perhaps middle-income and lower-income, blue-collar people and minorities being impacted by COVID in much more severe ways," Warren said. "I don't know whether the sentiment among middle-class people who are living in Worcester is they want to move away to a more rural lifestyle ... but don't really think there's a whole conjecture that people are eager to get out of the city and live in the woods as prevalent in Worcester as in other places."
But along with a greater decrease in the number of sales came a greater increase in median sale prices when comparing single-family homes in Worcester with those in the state overall. Both median sale prices for single-family homes in June and year-to-date median sale prices for single-family homes in Worcester increased by 8% — going up from $261,000 to $282,000 and from $250,000 to $270,000, respectively.
Finally, and perhaps surprisingly, the number of condo sales in the city stayed basically the same this June compared to last and so far this year compared to at this point in 2019. This June recorded 33 sales compared to 34 sales in June 2019, a decrease of just roughly 3%. And on a year-to-date basis, there were 165 sales by this time last year while there were 164 so far this year — down roughly .5%.
And unlike in the state, Worcester condos continued to increase in median sale price. The median sale price was $184,950 in June 2019 compared with $200,000 last month, an increase of 8%. And the median sale price as of this point last year was $172,000 while today the median sale price is up nearly 6% to $181,750.
