U.S. residential real estate may lose close to $1 trillion in value this year, but that loss will be transient as home prices are expected to rebound, according to a new poll.
Respondents expect prices to fall 2% nationally this year, which implies that the value of the U.S. housing market will fall to $46.9 trillion from $47.9 trillion at the end of 2022, per results of the poll conducted by housing analytics firm Pulsenomics.
While they see a meager gain of just 1.2% in 2024, the recovery will pick up steam in the following three years, when prices are forecast to increase 4% annually.
Aggregate home values peaked at close to $48 trillion during the third quarter of 2022, according to data from the Federal Reserve. That was an increase from about $33.4 trillion at the end of 2019.
The 107 survey respondents — which included economists, real estate professionals and professors — showed a high degree of uncertainty, with home price predictions for this year ranging from a 15% fall to a 6.5% rise. They were polled in the first two weeks of March.
"The dispersion of expectations among our survey panelists remains elevated: the five-year forecasts of the optimistic quartile of experts imply that aggregate U.S. home values will grow to $60.9 trillion by the end of 2027," said Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics.
Half of forecasters say there is a downside risk to the price growth estimates while just 16% said there could be an upside surprise. The remaining panelists see the risks as balanced.
Respondents expect every major US metro area to see declining or stagnant home prices from 2022, except in Miami. Metros in the Southeast are projected to be the country's strongest in 2023, while many in the West will be among the weakest.
In the most recent S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller price gauge, Miami, Tampa and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities tracked in January. San Diego, Seattle and San Francisco saw the biggest declines.
