Last month, Central Texas housing market expert Charles Heimsath predicted that a significant slowdown induced by the coronavirus pandemic loomed for the Austin region. He anticipated that sales could plummet by 30% over the next three months, in what typically are among the busiest months for residential real estate.
"It is just too difficult to show property, obtain appraisals, make repairs and find an interested lender, particularly at the higher end of the market," Heimsath said in April.
Recent figures indicate his forecast was on the mark, with sales and new listings in Central Texas sliding 20% to 30% in the past few weeks, according to the Austin Board of Realtors.
However, some real estate agents say there are signs the local housing market has started to rebound since late March, when efforts to reduce the spread of the virus led to stay-at-home orders in Austin and elsewhere. Many stores, restaurants and other businesses have been forced to shut down temporarily, and the United States has since registered its highest unemployment level since the Great Depression.
In an interview last week, Romeo Manzanilla, president of the Austin Board of Realtors, said home sales and new listings had been down as much as 30% about three weeks ago due to the coronavirus pandemic.
More recently, however, Manzanilla said there's been a promising trend — sales and listings have come off the mat and now are down only about 20%, buoyed by increases in the last couple of weeks.
And while the numbers are still well below year-over-year levels, "it's trending in the right direction in terms of positive week-over-week growth," Manzanilla said. "It's a positive sign the market is starting to come back."
A more complete picture of the COVID-19 impact on the Austin-area real estate market is expected to be reflected in the April monthly home-sales report for the five-county region spanning Georgetown to San Marcos.
That report, due out soon, will have the first full month of data since the pandemic hit in mid-March.
But some real estate agents said they expect the report to show what they already know: that the virus brought an abrupt and merciless halt to Central Texas' 10-year housing streak, one marked by ever-higher records in home sales and median home-sales prices.
Local agents say the pandemic has affected certain parts of the market more negatively than others. The luxury market has slowed, they said, while some potential buyers planning to move to Austin from elsewhere have pushed back their timelines, putting travel on hold for now.
"The relocation clients — none have canceled their plans, they still intend to move to Austin — they're just trying to figure out how they can safely visit Austin to shop for homes," said real estate broker Eric Bramlett, who owns Bramlett Residential in Austin.
Meanwhile, some sellers are hitting pause on listing their homes as they wait and see how market conditions play out in coming months, while others are pulling their previously listed homes off the market.
A Realtor.com report said homes nationally sold in 62 days on average in April, four days slower than in April 2019.
"This is likely an indication that buyers also have decided to step back to see if economic conditions will improve over the coming months," Realtor.com said.
Jay Jay Tolentino, an agent with the Smart Living Team under Keller Williams Realty, said the buyers who are moving forward on home purchases "are the ones that are motivated and brave."
Manzanilla said the local market, and Texas in general, "is faring much better" than the nation as a whole and states such as California, Florida and New York.
"Our market has definitely taken a hit, but it's not been as severe as (some) other markets," Manzanilla said. "Buyers and sellers are rolling with the punches, so to speak."
In a housing report last week, Realtor.com said that new listings — one of the strongest leading indicators of future sales volume — plunged 44.1% nationally, in the traditionally strong selling month of April.
For the Austin-Round Rock region, new listings were down 28.9% in April from the prior April, according to Realtor.com. The median asking price was $365,900, down 1.3%. Austin-area homes were on the market for 43 days, three fewer than a year ago April, the report said.
In Austin, Bramlett said the number of pending home-sales contracts at his company, Bramlett Residential, were down 35% in April year-over-year, which he said was in line with expectations.
Another leading indicator of market demand — inquiries from prospective buyers — also cratered when the crisis hit, he said, dropping by 54% from mid-March to mid-April from the same period last year. However, the second half of April showed marked improvement, with inquiries up 69% over the first half, though still down from 2019, Bramlett said.
"This looks to me like the very beginning of the market coming out of the valley," he said. "My theory is that for the first two to four weeks (of the coronavirus crisis), everyone was in shock, paralyzed — all you did was read bad news over and over. After people started to come to terms with the new reality, they began to resume their lives under a new normal. I think we'll look back and see that April was the valley of the real estate market, and we'll have a slow climb out of that."
Manzanilla also is hopeful. He thinks the spring buying season "has shifted by about two months," and that the Austin market will see "a very busy second half of the year with homes being bought and sold."
